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The market is holding its breath for the 'belated verdict': September PCE to be unveiled tonight. If inflation remains sticky, could it shake the consensus around the Federal Reserve's rate cut next week?
After experiencing a volatile November, the US stock market is once again approaching its historical highs. However, behind this rebound, investor sentiment remains uneasy: on one hand, inflation continues to be stubbornly high; on the other hand, the labor market is gradually cooling, with conflicting macroeconomic signals. Against this backdrop, the September PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index), set to be released tonight, has become what the market perceives as a "belated yet crucial verdict." Due to the US government shutdown, the September PCE and personal income reports were delayed until December 5th at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (Beijing time in the evening), originally scheduled for release on October 31st.
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Despite internal disagreements, the Fed's December rate cut remains an overwhelming consensus!
A Reuters survey shows that 108 economists have reached a strong consensus, predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, in sharp contrast to the significant divisions within the FOMC.
Futu Morning Brief | Hassett: The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week; U.S. small-cap stocks surge, with the Russell 2000 Index approaching a new high; U.S. government plans to increase its stake in mining companies.
The outstanding U.S. government debt has surpassed $30 trillion, doubling since 2018; the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated that spot cryptocurrencies can now be traded on CFTC-registered exchanges.
Hassett's statement: The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates next week, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points.
Hassett, in an interview with the media, stated that the FOMC now appears to lean towards a rate cut, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points. When asked how many additional rate cuts he would pursue if nominated, Hassett avoided specifying a number, emphasizing that the role of the Federal Reserve Chair is to be "highly sensitive to data" and consider the impact of interest rate adjustments on inflation and employment.