Weekly Outlook | Global Attention! NVIDIA's Earnings Set to Impress, with Xiaomi, PDD Holdings and Others Reporting in Turn; September Nonfarm Payroll Data to be Released First

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and several Fed officials will make speeches; Microsoft Ignite 2025 Technology Conference will be held from November 18 to 21.

Futu News18:02

"Missing data" disrupts rate cut plans, Goldman Sachs: Originally expected "a rate cut in December and a pause in January," now uncertain.

The persistent absence of key U.S. economic data has forced the market to reassess the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with current market pricing indicating that the probability of a rate cut has fallen below 50%. Goldman Sachs noted that the data vacuum significantly disrupts the policy trajectory, and its originally anticipated rhythm of 'a rate cut in December, followed by a pause in January' now faces considerable uncertainty. Meanwhile, downside risks in the labor market are increasing, and the widespread adoption of AI technology is complicating employment and inflation modeling, further amplifying the complexity of policymaking.

wallstreetcn19:14

Document reveals: Since late August, Trump has purchased at least $82 million worth of bonds.

① Between late August and early October, U.S. President Donald Trump purchased at least $82 million worth of corporate and municipal bonds; ② Trump's new investments span multiple sectors, including chip manufacturers, retailers, and Wall Street banks, some of which have benefited from policy changes implemented by his administration; ③ Previously disclosed documents show that since assuming the presidency, Trump has purchased more than $100 million worth of bonds.

cls.cn18:31

Starting next Thursday, the U.S. will enter a 'data frenzy' that is crucial for the markets.

Following the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a backlog of economic data is set to be released intensively starting next week. While key indicators such as the September non-farm payroll and Q3 GDP will be published successively, core data like the October CPI may be permanently missing due to limitations in data collection methods. This 'data fog' is complicating the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, with some economists warning that continued absence of critical data could lead to intense internal divisions within the Fed.

wallstreetcn17:40

The truth behind the resignation of former Fed governor Kugler exposed: violation of stock trading rules.

① Former Federal Reserve Governor Kugler was investigated by the Federal Reserve's Office of Inspector General for violating trading policies in his annual financial disclosure forms; ② Kugler conducted at least a dozen individual stock trades in 2024, some of which were executed only weeks apart, with two non-compliant trades occurring days before FOMC meetings.

cls.cn15:37

Goldman Sachs Trader: The 'core bull market logic' has been challenged over the past two weeks.

Mark Wilson, a top trader at Goldman Sachs, has warned that over the past two weeks, the three core bull-market narratives for stocks—including AI investment prospects, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the sustainability of economic growth—have all faced skepticism. Fundamental concerns, compounded by overly crowded market positioning, have triggered the largest "high-beta momentum" pullback since the DeepSeek incident. NVIDIA's earnings report, scheduled for release next week, will provide real-time insights into AI investment prospects. The increasingly evident K-shaped economic recovery pattern adds complexity to the market outlook.

wallstreetcn10:22