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H-share Movement | Gaming Stocks Collectively Active, Melco International Development Up Over 6%, Morgan Stanley Estimates February Gaming Revenue to Increase by 13%
Gelonghui February 9 | Hong Kong-listed casino stocks collectively surged, with Melco International Development up more than 6%, Sands China rising 4%, Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau climbing 2.5%, and SJM Holdings and MGM China jumping 25%. According to a Morgan Stanley research report, during the first five days of last year's Golden Week in October, Macau’s average daily gaming revenue was approximately 1.1 billion Macau patacas. Given that this year’s Lunar New Year holiday has a similar occupancy rate to that period, coupled with an average daily room rate (ADR) about 25% higher, the report expects this year’s gaming revenue during the Lunar New Year period to be on par with or even stronger than last year’s Golden Week. Based on the higher occupancy rates, the firm anticipates this year’s festival
Macau hospitality industry insiders expect the occupancy rate during the Spring Festival to exceed 90%.
According to reports by the Macao Daily, hotel operators in Macao have indicated that the current booking rate for hotels and orders from travel agencies during the Spring Festival period are steadily rising. It is expected that the hotel occupancy rate during the Spring Festival will exceed 90%, marking a peak season for Macao's tourism market. Zhang Jianzhong, President of the Macao Hotel and Tourism Chamber of Commerce and Chairman of Macao China Travel Service, analyzed that this Lunar New Year benefits from multiple positive factors, including government-organized events such as the float parade and the Spring Festival fair. Additionally, the mainland’s holiday schedule aligns with weekends, forming a nine-day consecutive break, which is anticipated to significantly boost travelers’ willingness to visit Macao. The government has also been actively enhancing promotional efforts both domestically and internationally, which is expected to yield ongoing benefits. He predicted that Macao’s Spring Festival tou
Morgan Stanley: Macau hotel room rates increased nearly 30% year-on-year during the Lunar New Year, with February gaming revenue expected to rise 13% annually.
According to a Morgan Stanley research report, during the first five days of last year’s Golden Week in October, Macau's average daily gaming revenue was approximately MOP 1.1 billion. Given that this year’s Lunar New Year holiday recorded an occupancy rate similar to that period and the average daily room rate (ADR) was about 25% higher, it is anticipated that gaming revenue during this year’s Lunar New Year holiday will be on par with or even stronger than last year’s Golden Week in October. The firm’s data indicates that the daily room rates during this year’s Lunar New Year holiday were 25% higher than those during last year’s Golden Week in October and 29% higher than the same period last year. The occupancy rate (number of days with sold-out rooms) was similar to last year’s Golden Week but declined by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Based on the occupancy rate being relatively...
Wen Qihua projected that the average daily visitor arrivals to Macao during the Spring Festival holiday would exceed 150,000.
Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, Director of the Macao Government Tourism Office, stated that this Lunar New Year holiday period for mainland China is relatively long, spanning nine days, with an estimated total of over 14 million visitors expected to travel to Macao. The average daily number of visitors is projected to range between 158,000 and 175,000, with hopes that the total number of visitors for the year will reach 41 million. She emphasized that one of the key priorities this year is to leverage the favorable policies of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the 240-hour visa-free transit at the Hengqin Port to continue attracting international visitors. In addition to further expanding traditional markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas, efforts will also focus on tapping into the Middle Eastern market, including countries like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
CICC: Estimated gross gaming revenue for February 2026 will be between MOP 21 billion and MOP 22.4 billion, with Sands China (01928) being the most preferred stock.
The preference ranking for individual stocks in the sector remains unchanged: Sands China (01928), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), Wynn Macau (01128), Melco International Development (00200), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.US), SJM Holdings (00880).
Morgan Stanley expects Macau's Q1 gaming revenue to increase by 18% year-on-year, with a positive outlook for Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) and Sands China (01928.HK).
Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Macao's total gaming revenue for January this year reached MOP 22.6 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 8%, surpassing market expectations. Given that the entire 8-day Lunar New Year holiday fell in February, the month is expected to gain additional growth momentum, with an estimated year-on-year revenue growth of 22%. Morgan Stanley forecasts that Macao’s total gaming revenue in the first quarter of this year will grow by 18% year-on-year, due to the relatively low base in the first four months of 2025. Additionally, despite concerns about margin contraction in the fourth quarter of last year and promotional activities, stronger performance in the first quarter of this year should drive upward revisions in earnings expectations. The current industry dynamics are also viewed favorably.