Is the narrative of a 'tidal wave of tens of trillions of high-interest fixed deposits maturing' reliable? Repricing does not equate to deposit migration, as banks have multiple strategies to address the situation.

①Currently, over 70% of household deposits are non-demand deposits, but there is no accurate data on the structure and maturity of these deposits. Most related analyses are deductions based on certain assumptions. ②Banking professionals believe that although some three-year fixed deposits will indeed mature in 2026, 'the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits does not equate to deposit migration.' ③Banks have various means to address the repricing of household deposits and would actually welcome a decline in the proportion of fixed-term deposits.

cls.cn11:27

Morgan Stanley predicts that the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools will be lowered, which could save domestic banks 15 billion yuan in costs annually.

Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced yesterday (August 15) a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools. The one-year interest rate for various re-lending facilities was lowered to 1.25%, while the interest rate for pledged supplementary lending was reduced to 1.75%. Interest rates for other tenors were also adjusted accordingly. PBOC Vice Governor Zou Lan further indicated that there is still room for reductions in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year. Morgan Stanley believes that reducing banks' funding costs and stabilizing net interest margins are key to creating space for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, supporting their view that net interest margins will stabilize. The bank also pointed out that the PBOC emphasized the need to improve commercial banks' loan pricing mechanisms.

AASTOCKSJan 16 10:38

CICC: Following the PBOC's "structural rate cut," it does not imply an immediate traditional rate cut; expectations for a rate cut this year remain at 10 basis points.

CICC issued a report stating that yesterday the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, along with introducing five additional measures related to these tools. The adjustments include changes to the types, coverage, and quotas of structural monetary policy support instruments. In terms of aggregate impact, the direct effect of this adjustment on asset prices is relatively limited, with the key factor being the subsequent implementation. This policy adjustment reflects the characteristics of the current macroeconomic policy approach—maintaining moderate easing in overall terms while placing greater emphasis on structural adjustments. This tone aligns with the focus on 'quality and efficiency' emphasized at the Central Economic Work Conference and may continue.

AASTOCKSJan 16 10:27

Standard Chartered: The PBOC’s reduction in the relending rate was slightly beyond expectations, but it does not imply a narrowing of broad-based easing room in the future.

Jie Liu, Head of Greater China Strategy at Standard Chartered and Head of Interest Rates for Greater China and North Asia, ASEAN, and South Asia, believes that the People's Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision to cut the relending and rediscount rates by 25 basis points was somewhat beyond expectations. Typically, relending rates are not adjusted independently unless policy rates—such as those for Open Market Operations (OMO) or the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF)—are also changed. Moreover, the magnitude of this adjustment is considered significant. Standard Chartered anticipates that there will be room for expansion in the use of relending tools this year, potentially leading to further substantial rate cuts when OMO rates are lowered. Liu stated that this targeted easing policy by the PBoC does not imply a broad-based easing stance.

AASTOCKSJan 16 09:46

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Zhitong FinanceJan 16 07:31

WeLab Raises $220 Million in Largest Funding Round Yet

Yahoo FinanceJan 15 23:45