Express News | Fed's Daly: Employment and inflation risks are roughly balanced.
SWHY: When will inflation make a comeback in the United States?
Inflation in the United States may enter an upward Range in the second half of the year, before beginning to decline again in 2026.
Powell will go to Capitol Hill next week to defend against not lowering interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will face congressional questioning next week to defend the "wait-and-see mode" of keeping interest rates unchanged. Analysts point out that core inflation is showing a slowing trend, and policymakers state that they are "fully conditioned to wait." However, the challenge is that the Federal Reserve must remain vigilant against tariffs igniting prices while avoiding premature rate cuts that could stimulate overheating. Additionally, it needs to coordinate the internal differences within the Fed, as the dot plot indicates two rate cuts this year, but there is an increasing number of supporters for one or no rate cuts.
Will Gold continue to shine? Bank of America: Gold prices will rise to $4,000, the 'Big and Beautiful' bill is the key!
1. Analysts at Bank of America pointed out that although the conflict in Israel has escalated, wars and geopolitical conflicts are generally not long-term drivers for gold prices; 2. The analysts expect that next year, gold prices will reach $4,000 per ounce, an increase of about 19% from the current level. They emphasized that the trajectory of U.S. budget negotiations will be crucial.
Bank of America Hartnett: Any military action by the United States will be brief, and Trump does not want oil prices to rise.
Bank of America believes that the U.S. military action against Iran will be short-lived, as Trump does not want U.S. RBOB Gasoline prices to exceed $4 per gallon. Due to the market broadly shorting the dollar, 'the most painful Trade this summer is to go long on the dollar', and global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the U.S. to the Eurasian markets. Gold remains the best-performing asset in 2025, but Bank of America points out that high-net-worth clients are seriously under-allocated in Gold.
Sudden heavyweight statement! The "rising star" of the Federal Reserve is calling for interest rate cuts as early as July.
Federal Reserve "rising star" Waller stated that the Federal Reserve should begin to cut interest rates as early as next month, highlighting the deepening internal divisions regarding whether to lower borrowing costs this year. Waller indicated that although President Trump's tariff measures may raise inflation, the economic data supports a rate cut in the short term.
Trump: All NATO countries, except the United States, should allocate 5% of their GDP to defense.
Gelonghui, June 21 | President Trump believes that all NATO countries, except for the United States, should spend 5% of their GDP on defense. "I don't think we should do that. But I believe NATO countries absolutely should. We have supported NATO for a long time. In many cases, I believe (the U.S.) pays almost 100% of the costs. So I don't think we should do that, but I believe NATO countries absolutely should." This week, Spain publicly opposed NATO increasing its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, as well as raising the defense ministers' spending to 1.5% of GDP. When asked
The intense conflict between Israel and Palestine has left Gold "unmoved", which is quite unusual.
Deutsche Bank believes that historical data indicates that the geopolitical risk premium for Gold typically peaks on the 8th to 20th trading day after a crisis, with an average increase of 5.5%. Considering the severity of the current conflict and the actual mobilization of U.S. military forces, a rapid decline in the geopolitical risk premium for Gold may be a false signal, necessitating preparation for the potential rebuilding of risk premium in Gold over the coming weeks.
Regarding interest rate cuts! The Federal Reserve is experiencing "internal strife"; the head of the San Francisco Fed: action this fall is more appropriate.
① On Friday, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are developing towards a potential need for rate cuts; ② however, she suggested that a rate cut in July might be too early and indicated that action this fall looks more appropriate; ③ currently, there seems to be a significant division within the Fed regarding when to resume rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve reports a slowdown in labor supply, and officials have differing opinions on the future direction of interest rates.
Regarding the future direction of interest rates, there are differences in opinions among Federal Reserve officials.
Express News | Trump calls for a rate cut again, but perhaps "not to fire Powell."
Trump urged Powell to cut interest rates to 1%-2%, stating: perhaps I need to rethink whether to fry up Powell.
Gelonghui June 21 | U.S. President Trump stated, "It's too late, Mr. Powell" (Chairman of the Federal Reserve), complaining about costs, most of which were caused by (former President) Biden's false "government". But he (Powell) can do the greatest and best work for our country by helping to lower interest rates. If he lowers interest rates to the proper level, which is 1%-2%, that "fool" will save up to 1 trillion dollars for America each year. I fully understand that my strong criticism of him makes it more difficult for him to do what he should do, which is to lower interest rates, but I have tried various different approaches. I have acted friendly, I have remained Neutral,
Fed's Daly: The FOMC may cut interest rates in the fall.
On June 21, at Glonghui, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2027 FOMC voter), stated that it's not possible to wait until the fundamental conditions are fully met before taking action on rate cuts. Personally, having more information might lead to a rate cut in the fall. I do not wish for the U.S. labor market to evolve from a soft performance to a weak performance. So far, the U.S. economy and FOMC monetary policy are in good condition. The U.S. May inflation data is indeed very good.
Express News | Powell's actions are too slow! Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve Chairman for incompetence: if rates could be decisively cut to 1-2%, the United States would save a trillion dollars annually.
The divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts has become public: some are calling for July, some expect this autumn, while others are not in a hurry.
"Hot official" Waller believes that interest rates should be cut as early as July, and the one-time impact of tariffs on prices should be ignored. Even if there are disruptions from Middle Eastern events in the future, a pause in rate cuts can still be considered. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes there is no rush to cut rates, stating that he is not yet ready to rule out the inflation risks posed by tariffs. San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks that having more information might lead to a rate cut this fall. Economists evaluate Waller's remarks: the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting rates, but it just needs clearer economic evidence.
Express News | Fed's Daly: If there are no tariff measures, consideration will be given to normalizing interest rates.
Federal Reserve's semiannual MMF policy report: It is too early to assess the impact of tariffs.
① The Federal Reserve report reiterated the stance of 'wait and see before lowering interest rates' and repeatedly mentioned the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and financial markets. ② Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend hearings in both the Senate and House next week.
The Federal Reserve is once again mired in policy confusion, and the market holds its breath in anticipation! In the era of high interest rates, how can investment tools be chosen wisely?
On Friday (June 20), Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, stated that considering the unresolved risks of a new round of import tariffs possibly pushing up inflation, along with the still strong U.S. job market and consumer spending, the Federal Reserve does not need to hasten to cut interest rates.
Express News | Federal Reserve officials show a "polar" divergence on the impact of tariffs and the urgency of interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve's Barkin: Not in a hurry to cut interest rates, cannot ignore the inflation risks brought by tariffs.
On June 21, Gelonghui reported that Federal Reserve official Barkin stated on Friday that, given the unresolved risks of new import taxes potentially driving inflation and the strong U.S. job market and consumer spending, there is no urgency to lower interest rates. In an interview with Reuters, Barkin mentioned, "I do not think this data will rush us to cut rates... I am very clear that we have not met the inflation target for four years." Businesses in Barkin's district (Richmond) still expect prices to rise later this year as new tariffs take effect, and import duties may increase further in the coming months. Additionally, he said that the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%.