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JPM Sees Dour Demand Outlook for China Automakers, Downgrades Li Auto
Nio Phone Isn't Completely Dead yet as New Feature Rolls Out
JPMorgan downgraded Li Auto (02015.HK) to "Underweight" and named Geely (00175.HK) and Sinotruk (03808.HK) as its top picks.
JPMorgan issued a research report stating that this year's performance of China's automobile market will exhibit a mixed trend resembling both 2018 and 2025: 1) As the overall passenger vehicle market growth rate has fallen into negative territory (similar to 2018), the industry’s performance for the entire year may remain relatively weak; 2) However, driven by new model launches, seasonal trend fluctuations, and changes in earnings expectations (resembling 2025), market volatility throughout the year is expected to intensify. Whether absolute or relative gains can be achieved will depend on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations, which will be more challenging amid rising costs. Taking these factors into account, JPMorgan's top pick is Geely.
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Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association: Last month, the average price reduction for new cars was RMB 37,000, with new energy vehicles seeing a decrease of 14.8%.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, provided the latest data showing that in January 2026, the average price of new car models with price cuts in the overall passenger car market was RMB 248,000 (hereinafter the same), with an arithmetic average discount of RMB 37,000. A breakdown shows that the average price of discounted new energy vehicle models was RMB 253,000, with an average price reduction of RMB 38,000, representing a decrease of 14.8%; the average price of discounted conventional fuel vehicle models was RMB 238,000, with an average price reduction of RMB 36,000, resulting in a decrease of 15%. The overall discount rate for new car models with price cuts in Mainland China’s passenger car market that month reached as high as 14.9%, rising month-on-month.
J.P. Morgan Maintains NIO Inc(NIO.US) With Buy Rating, Cuts Target Price to $7