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How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.
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The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August will be released at 20:30 tonight. Bank of America states that the non-farm report is merely a precursor, with the CPI holding the trigger for policy decisions; employment data would need to show a "significant w
The key market driver in tonight’s non-farm payrolls report is whether it can alter expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. If job growth turns negative for a second consecutive month, or if the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, market pricing may loosen significantly; otherwise, inflation will continue to dominate policy assessments.