快讯 | 美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%符合市场预期 交易员上调美联储加息预期

US Aug. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.4%

BreakingsSep 11 20:30

快讯 | 美国8月PPI同比增长5.4%超预期，美联储加息预期骤升

US August PPI YoY +5.4% Vs +5.3% Forecast, Prior +4.7%

BreakingsSep 10 20:30

Expectations of a rate hike have never missed the 40% threshold; the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike may emerge as the “least bad option”.

The surge in non-farm payroll data has pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 60%, leaving Governor Warsh in a dilemma between "disappointing the market" and "disappointing Trump." Shenwan Hongyuan warns that since 2015, expectations of a rate hike exceeding 40% have never failed to materialize, and heightened market expectations for a rate hike are unlikely to subside significantly following the release of CPI data. If the Fed makes an exception this time, the term premium could suffer a backlash. However, if the rate hike proceeds without a substantial upward revision to the future path, the impact may be much milder than market expectations suggest.

wallstreetcnSep 9 19:03

New York Fed Analyzes Global Dollar Reserves: Dollar Share Declines, but 'De-dollarization' Narrative Is Overstated

According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the decline in the U.S. dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves does not reflect a broad-based shift away from the currency, but rather the actions of a limited number of reserve managers.

Zhitong FinanceSep 7 19:54

How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.

wallstreetcnSep 5 03:45

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August will be released at 20:30 tonight. Bank of America states that the non-farm report is merely a precursor, with the CPI holding the trigger for policy decisions; employment data would need to show a "significant w

The key market driver in tonight’s non-farm payrolls report is whether it can alter expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. If job growth turns negative for a second consecutive month, or if the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, market pricing may loosen significantly; otherwise, inflation will continue to dominate policy assessments.

Golden10 DataSep 4 11:16