U.S.-Iran peace deal stirs prediction market as Polymarket users clash over bets exceeding $300 million
A proposed agreement aimed at ending hostilities between the United States and Iran gave stock and bond traders some relief on Monday, but also introduced new uncertainties for prediction markets. On Polymarket—one of the world’s largest event prediction trading platforms—trading volume on whether and when the U.S. and Iran would sign a peace agreement has exceeded $345 million. The two countries announced an agreement over the weekend, leading some traders to believe they were already entitled to payouts. However, because it remains unclear whether the announcement satisfies the conditions stipulated in Polymarket’s contracts, these bets currently remain unresolved.
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Most prediction markets, such as Kalshi, adjudicate disputes themselves, whereas Polymarket delegates this authority to a loosely organized group of cryptocurrency holders.
The Mysterious Crypto Judges Who Settle Polymarket Disputes -- WSJ
The temptation of a $50 million bounty has led to open offers for paid attacks on Polymarket.
UMA's total market capitalization is $40 million, and this single trade by a major investor could yield a profit of $50 million.
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How to let AI act as the referee in market forecasting?
Resolve disputes through an auditable and predictable settlement mechanism.
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When Magical Realism Becomes the Norm: A Review of the Top Ten 'Outrageous' Events in the 2025 Web3 Industry
Author: Eric, Foresight News. At the end of 2022, I compiled a list of bizarre events that occurred during that year. Three years later, I am back to summarize Web3 in 2025 in the same manner. Times have changed, and Web3 in 2025 has transformed significantly compared to three years ago. Basic errors such as sending assets to incorrect addresses or setting wrong parameters rarely occur anymore. Although this year's events may not be as 'amusing' as those from back then, their absurdity is no less striking. It can only be said that human nature, the greatest scriptwriter, continues to exert its influence. The concept of a president controlled by a mysterious team.
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