U.S.-Iran peace deal stirs prediction market as Polymarket users clash over bets exceeding $300 million

A proposed agreement aimed at ending hostilities between the United States and Iran gave stock and bond traders some relief on Monday, but also introduced new uncertainties for prediction markets. On Polymarket—one of the world’s largest event prediction trading platforms—trading volume on whether and when the U.S. and Iran would sign a peace agreement has exceeded $345 million. The two countries announced an agreement over the weekend, leading some traders to believe they were already entitled to payouts. However, because it remains unclear whether the announcement satisfies the conditions stipulated in Polymarket’s contracts, these bets currently remain unresolved.

Global Markets UpdateJun 16 08:47

Express News | Bloomberg: Nine whale wallets dominate Polymarket’s multi-billion-dollar dispute resolutions

According to a May 26 report by Bloomberg, dispute resolutions for contested contracts on Polymarket are being dominated by a small group of UMA token holders. Bloomberg’s analysis shows that among the more than 6,400 addresses that have participated in Polymarket dispute resolution votes over the past three years, just nine large wallets accounted for approximately half of all UMA voting power and sided with the winning outcome in nearly every dispute. In April 2026, around 230 contracts—representing over $1 billion in total trading volume—entered the dispute resolution process, constituting less than 1% of all Polymarket contracts, though the frequency of disputes rises with transaction size. Some traders have criticized the mechanism for effectively granting anonymous whales economically motivated 'de facto decision-making authority.' Plans previously pledged by Polymarket and Risk Labs—the entity responsible for UMA—to improve the process have been shelved.

BreakingsMay 26 18:29

Express News | Polymarket: $164,000 in stolen funds from private key leak frozen

On May 22, Josh Stevens, Vice President of Engineering at Polymarket, stated that with assistance from ZachXBT, BitcoinVN, and ChangeNOW, approximately $164,000 of the stolen funds from the Polymarket private key leak has been frozen—representing roughly 28.6% of the total $573,200 transferred. The incident did not affect Polymarket or UMA smart contracts; user funds remain secure, and platform operations are normal. Investigations revealed that the breach originated from a private key that had existed for approximately six years and was used for internal top-up configurations, resulting in continuous transfers to the compromised address. Relevant teams are continuing to trace the flow of the remaining stolen funds.

BreakingsMay 22 23:19

Polymarket Smart Contract Breached: Will POL USD Crash?

CoinspeakerMay 22 19:16

Express News | Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract suspected of being exploited, with losses exceeding $520,000

On May 22, blockchain sleuth ZachXBT posted that Polymarket’s UMA CTF Adapter contract deployed on Polygon is suspected of having been exploited, with current losses exceeding $520,000. The attacker’s address begins with 0x8F98. This contract connects the UMA optimistic oracle with Gnosis Conditional Tokens for market settlement. The scope of the incident and its potential impact on currently open markets remain unclear.

BreakingsMay 22 16:29

WSJ: Unveiling the Mysterious Jury Governing Dispute Resolution in the Polymarket

Most prediction markets, such as Kalshi, adjudicate disputes themselves, whereas Polymarket delegates this authority to a loosely organized group of cryptocurrency holders.

BlockBeatsMay 18 18:55