China Producer Prices Fall at Softer Pace in October
China’s latest data came as a surprise! October CPI rebounded to growth exceeding expectations, while PPI remained in negative territory for the third consecutive year.
China's deflationary pressures eased in October as consumer prices returned to growth after two consecutive months of declines, showing signs of a rebound in prices. However, the producer price index continued to decline and has remained in negative territory for three consecutive years, indicating that the world’s second-largest economy still faces dual pressures from weak domestic demand and falling exports.
China’s CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in October, with core CPI reaching its highest level since March 2024, and PPI posting the first monthly increase this year.
In October, the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand, coupled with the boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, led to a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the CPI and a 0.2% year-on-year rise. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion. The PPI turned positive with a 0.1% month-on-month increase in October, the first rise within the year, while the year-on-year decline continued to narrow.
Argentine Economy Minister: No Intention to Establish a Freely Floating Exchange Rate
Gelonghui, November 9th | According to media reports citing insiders, Argentine Economy Minister Caputo told investors in New York that Argentina plans to repurchase sovereign bonds and begin building up foreign exchange reserves, even as the peso continues to fluctuate within a designated range. Caputo stated that Argentine President Milei does not intend to allow the local currency to float freely but will keep it trading within an established range. Depending on inflation and demand for the peso, Caputo may accelerate the adjustment of the floating range to 1.5% per month, adding that the upper and lower limits of the current trading range are adjusted by 1% each month, allowing the peso to gradually weaken. Caputo intends to submit a full plan within 30 days.
Argentina's Economy Minister informed bankers that the country would accumulate foreign exchange reserves and repurchase bonds.
Media reported on Saturday, citing sources directly familiar with the matter, that Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo told investors in New York that despite the peso currently trading within its exchange rate band, Argentina still plans to repurchase sovereign bonds and initiate efforts to accumulate foreign exchange reserves. According to the report, at a meeting hosted by JPMorgan on Friday, Caputo, speaking to approximately 40 investors, stated that President Milei does not intend to implement a floating exchange rate regime for the Argentine peso but will instead maintain its trading within the established band. The report noted that depending on inflation levels and demand for the peso, Caputo might adjust the exchange rate band.
Cailian Press C50 Sentiment Index Survey: New loans in October may see a year-on-year decrease, and the slowdown in government bond issuance could lead to a decline in aggregate financing.
①New RMB loans in October may see a year-on-year decrease, with the market's median forecast at CNY 0.15 trillion; ②Net government bond financing in October may impact the aggregate financing figure, with the market's median forecast at CNY 0.79 trillion; ③The growth rate of M2 in October may decline somewhat, while the M1 growth rate may have already peaked in this phase; ④The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October is expected to turn positive, whereas PPI may experience a further widening of its year-on-year decline.