Cailian Press C50 Sentiment Index Survey: New loans in October may see a year-on-year decrease, and the slowdown in government bond issuance could lead to a decline in aggregate financing.
①New RMB loans in October may see a year-on-year decrease, with the market's median forecast at CNY 0.15 trillion; ②Net government bond financing in October may impact the aggregate financing figure, with the market's median forecast at CNY 0.79 trillion; ③The growth rate of M2 in October may decline somewhat, while the M1 growth rate may have already peaked in this phase; ④The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October is expected to turn positive, whereas PPI may experience a further widening of its year-on-year decline.
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[Infographic: China's Q3 Economic Report] GDP Grows by 5.2% Year-on-Year, Industrial Output Above Designated Scale Increases by 6.2% Year-on-Year
①The National Bureau of Statistics released the economic performance data for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a GDP year-on-year growth of 5.2%, with the third quarter growing by 4.8%; ②The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.5% year-on-year; ③Aggregate social financing in the first three quarters amounted to RMB 30.09 trillion, an increase of RMB 4.42 trillion compared to the same period last year.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3%.
In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 4.1971 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to RMB 36.5877 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5%.
China's total retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3% year-on-year, while catering revenue of enterprises above the designated size declined by 1.6%.
On October 20, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 4.1971 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%.
China's Benchmark Lending Rates Unchanged