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Bullish bets double, with potential for another 5% rise this year? The renminbi charts an independent course—what’s next?
Citi, Standard Chartered, and other foreign banks have observed a surge in bullish bets on the renminbi in the options market, with traders widely setting the year-end target at 6.50. Institutions such as Xingzheng and GF Macro have pointed out that the core driver is the release of substantial foreign exchange settlement demand (nearly US$200 billion in net settlements over the past two months) combined with fundamental resonance. GF Macro expects further appreciation within the year but with increased two-way volatility, stabilizing at around 6.85-6.87 by year-end. Regulatory authorities have initiated counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent excessive fluctuations.
20%→0! The central bank adjusts this foreign exchange policy after a 3-year interval.
The central bank announced the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales business to 0.