China Foreign Exchange Trade System: Offshore (CNH) renminbi appreciated against the US dollar in August; onshore (CNY) renminbi also appreciated against the US dollar.
On September 9, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System issued a statement noting that in August, both the offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB spot exchange rates appreciated against the U.S. dollar.
Express News | Bessent on the Yen: I Am the House, Try Betting Against Me
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has challenged traders attempting to short the yen, stating that he effectively possesses "insider information" when assessing market conditions. Bessent remarked, "Whenever someone says, 'Oh, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk by doing this,' I think that is precisely my dream, because I hold asymmetric information." A former hedge fund executive, Bessent recalled several instances of his market interventions, including the joint purchase of yen with the Japanese government on July 31. At that time, the yen strengthened significantly, but gradually gave back those gains over the following trading sessions, partly because traders pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's foreign exchange intervention funds are limited. Bessent stated, "I am now the house, so when we intervene in the yen market, I have a fairly good sense of what actions the Japanese government, the Bank of Japan, and Japanese policymakers will take. And if you wish, you are welcome to bet against me."
CORAX - Deutsche Bank FX Flows: Hedge Funds Continue to Lead G10 Currency Selling Against the US Dollar
Main pointsHedge funds remain bearish on the U.S. dollar, particularly against G10 currencies. While market narratives have focused on rising yields, the resilience of global growth has been the
As expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes intensify, UBS Group releases a 'buy and sell list': buy stocks on dips, while gold and other assets correct.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to approximately 60%. UBS Group has released an investment strategy recommending that investors buy stocks on dips amid market volatility, capitalize on opportunities arising from rising medium- to long-term bond yields, and establish hedging positions when gold prices pull back.
How much inflation is there in the U.S. August non-farm payrolls data?
Barclays believes that the August non-farm payrolls figure was overstated. The robust growth was partly driven by a technical rebound in the leisure and hospitality sector as well as local education, rather than reflecting a sustained improvement in labor demand. Adjustments to the birth-death model also contributed to statistical bias. The three-month average of private non-farm payrolls, at 75,000, offers a more reliable reference. Barclays maintains its baseline forecast of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.
Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge, lifting the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, triggering simultaneous repricing in U.S. equities and bonds.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August significantly exceeded expectations, further widening market分歧 over the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September.