Express News | Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: Trump's preference for interest rates could trigger inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve board member: The impact of tariffs is being transmitted to prices, and interest rates should not be lowered in the short term.
① Fed Governor Quigley stated that as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration begin to pass through to consumer prices, the Fed should not lower interest rates "for a period of time"; ② The Fed's next policy meeting will be held from July 29 to July 30, with the market widely expecting that decision-makers will continue to keep interest rates unchanged.
Express News | Federal Reserve Governor Cook: The impact of tariffs is beginning to be transmitted, and not lowering interest rates is appropriate.
Express News | Trump once again Posts calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Morgan Stanley: The European Central Bank may not protest too much against the recent strengthening of the euro.
On July 17, Gelonghui reported that Morgan Stanley strategists in a report stated that the European Central Bank is unlikely to protest excessively against the recent strengthening of the euro. They indicated that remarks made by European Central Bank policymakers at the recent meeting in Sintra, Portugal, "led investors to overestimate the extent of the European Central Bank's resistance to the euro's appreciation." Morgan Stanley believes that the euro is currently experiencing a short-term tactical pullback, moving downward towards the 1.15 dollar Range, but expects it to rebound further afterward.
ECB Is Unlikely to Complain Much About Euro Strength -- Market Talk
Federal Reserve Governor Kugler: It is appropriate to maintain interest rates unchanged for "a period of time."
On July 17, Gelonghui reported that Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that in light of the upward pressure on prices brought by tariffs, the Federal Reserve should maintain the current interest rate level unchanged for "a period of time." Kugler said at an event in Washington on Thursday, "We are performing steadily in achieving our employment goals, the unemployment rate is at a historical low, short-term inflation expectations remain high, and tariffs are driving up Commodity prices. I believe it is appropriate to maintain interest rates unchanged for a period of time." She added, "The currently restrictive policy stance is significant for stabilizing long-term inflation expectations."
Sinolink: The three gray rhinos facing the U.S. economy in the second half of the year.
Sinolink released a research report stating that the vulnerabilities of TACO, the reduction in fiscal spending, and the disputes over the Federal Reserve's dominance leave the U.S. economy still facing the risk of a gray rhino.
Express News | Apollo: The market is too eager to digest the scenario of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates; it is expected there will be one rate cut before the end of the year.
The surprising retail data from the U.S. has launched a strike on the dollar, causing Gold to crash by 1%, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timetable comes under attack!
On Thursday (July 17), at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor released key economic data such as June retail sales, initial jobless claims, and import and export price Index, which drew widespread attention from the market. June retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market's expected 0.1%, sweeping away the gloom of May's 0.9% decline; core retail sales (excluding Cars, RBOB Gasoline, building materials, and food services) grew by 0.5%, also better than the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, for the week ending July 12, initial jobless claims fell to 0.221 million, lower than the market expectation of 0.235 million, indicating
Express News | Former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh: Trump's public push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is correct.
Online voting: Investors are optimistic about the euro, agreeing that the dollar will weaken by the end of the year, while the Swiss franc remains favored.
ING Groep recently stated that in a recent online vote on Forex trend issues, investors had an optimistic outlook on the euro against the dollar and believed that when another "Sell America" event occurs, the Swiss franc would be the best safe-haven currency. In Asia, the yen continues to be favored. Investors' optimism towards the euro against the dollar Exchange Rates was noted, with ING indicating that this year's investor voting showed a strong directional forecast of a depreciation of the dollar, rather than the normal distribution typically observed in previous years. According to the voting results, 71% of investors expect the euro against the dollar to close above 1.15 by the end of this year. In contrast,
The Bollinger middle band has been broken, how much more downside is there for EUR/USD?
On Thursday (July 17), the EUR/USD exchange rate continued its recent downtrend, trading around the 1.16 level during the European session. The exchange rate has been fluctuating downward since its high of 1.1830, constrained by bearish pressure. Current market risk sentiment is relatively negative, with the dollar being strong as a safe-haven asset. After the escalation of tensions between Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and President Trump, traders generally maintain a cautious stance, focusing on the upcoming release of U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data. Recently, the EUR/USD MMF market has experienced significant volatility due to the intensifying public conflict between Chairman Powell and President Trump.
European Central Bank Can't Put Its Feet Up This Summer -- Market Talk
Regarding Powell's "stay or leave": the predictive market listens to Trump, while the interest rate market listens to Bessent.
The current interest rate market expects a reduction of only 43 basis points by the end of the year, a significant drop from the 67 basis points in June.
The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation Indicators may send a "rejection" signal! A rate cut in July seems unlikely?
The most important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve is about to be released, and the core PCE year-on-year rate is expected to rise to 2.8%! The pressure from the White House to lower interest rates contrasts sharply with the deadlock within the Fed, putting Powell's "wait and see" strategy to a significant test.
Express News | Institutions: This year's heat wave may lead to a loss of up to 0.5 percentage points in European GDP.
According to "Economic", the Eurozone's annual inflation rate rose slightly to 2% in June, in line with expectations.
The inflation rate in the eurozone for June this year is 2%, a slight increase from 1.9% in May, meeting market expectations, while it was 2.5% during the same period last year; it increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Eurostat data shows that the inflation rate in the EU during the same period is 2.3%, a slight increase from 2.2% in May, while it was 2.6% during the same period last year. Excluding energy, food, and tobacco, the core inflation rate in the eurozone for June is 2.3%, which meets market expectations. Among member states, Cyprus, France, and Ireland recorded the lowest inflation rates at 0.5%, 0.9%, and 1.6% respectively.
Eurozone's Annual Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2% in June
The Eurozone CPI in June increased by 2% year-on-year.
Gelonghui, July 17: The year-on-year final value of the Eurozone's June CPI is 2%, expected 2%, previous value 2.00%; the monthly final value is 0.3%, expected 0.3%, previous value 0.30%.