The yen strengthened as renewed selling offset the downward pressure from higher crude oil prices.
Market Overview for the Week of August 10–14: INR/JPY High: 1.6729 JPY; Low: 1.6561 JPY; Close: 1.666 JPY; Week-on-Week Change: +0.54% → Firming trend. Renewed selling of the yen offset the downward pressure from rising crude oil prices, leading to a firming trend. As perceptions faded regarding the effectiveness of coordinated intervention by Japan and the U.S., yen selling resumed, helping the Indian rupee recover against the yen. Although crude oil prices rose to the $82 per barrel range in response to the U.S. policy of strengthening economic sanctions against Iran, imposing a burden on India, which relies heavily on oil imports, yen selling...
Soft tone prevails amid caution over rising crude oil prices and potential additional intervention.
Outlook for the Week of August 17–21: Will the Indian rupee and yen remain weak amid rising crude oil prices and heightened caution over additional intervention? Rising crude oil prices, driven by strengthened U.S. sanctions against Iran, are likely to weigh on the Indian rupee through concerns over a deteriorating trade balance. As yen depreciation accelerates, vigilance regarding potential additional foreign exchange intervention by Japan and the U.S. is expected to intensify; consequently, the rupee may face downward pressure against the yen during phases of yen buying. India’s economic growth remains a supportive factor over the medium to long term.
Market sentiment may turn bearish as fading expectations for US interest rate hikes prompt caution over yen appreciation.
Weekly Outlook: August 10–14. Indian rupee likely to remain soft against the yen; caution warranted over yen strength as US rate hike expectations recede. Following the weak July US employment report, expectations for a September US rate hike have faded. During periods of strong yen buying, the INR/JPY exchange rate is likely to face upward resistance. Persistently high crude oil prices will also weigh on the rupee amid concerns over a deteriorating trade balance. Although India's economic growth remains a supportive factor in the medium to long term, a sluggish recovery is expected.
A sharp decline hit markets directly, driven by a broad-based rally in the yen following foreign exchange intervention.
Weekly Overview (July 27–31): Indian Rupee vs. Japanese Yen High: ¥1.647 Low: ¥1.7237 Closing: ¥1.6493 Week-over-week change: -2.9% ↓ Sharp decline driven by broad-based yen strength following foreign exchange intervention. The Indian rupee fell sharply against the yen, dropping to the ¥1.64 range, as coordinated yen-buying and dollar-selling intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan triggered broad-based yen appreciation. Yen strength persisted even after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate unchanged. Rising crude oil prices, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East, also weighed on the rupee, given India’s heavy reliance on crude imports.
Remain cautious amid subdued market sentiment, elevated yen levels, and rising crude oil prices.
Outlook for the Week: August 3–7 — The Indian rupee may remain weak against the Japanese yen, weighed down by a strong yen and elevated crude oil prices. The yen is expected to stay firm following recent foreign exchange intervention, likely resulting in limited upside for the rupee against the yen. Should crude oil prices remain high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, concerns over a deteriorating trade balance could further pressure the rupee. Although India’s economic growth remains a supportive factor over the medium to long term, the currency is likely to face persistent upward resistance.
The yen weakened broadly, pushing up exchange rates against the Japanese currency.
Weekly Overview (July 20–24): The Indian rupee traded at a high of ¥1.6775, a low of ¥1.7004, and closed at ¥1.6993, up 0.01% from the previous week, reflecting a firm tone. Broad-based yen weakness lifted the rupee against the yen. Although escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a sharp rise in crude oil prices—posing a significant burden on India, which relies heavily on oil imports—the yen weakened broadly due to dollar-buying and yen-selling flows driven by rising U.S. long-term interest rates and higher oil prices, thereby pushing the rupee-yen exchange rate upward. For the week, the pair hovered around the ¥1.70 level.