Continued gains were driven by positive sentiment toward further yen depreciation and the implementation of interest rate hikes.
Weekly Overview (July 13–17): The Korean won traded between a high of ¥11.003 and a low of ¥10.743 against the Japanese yen, closing at ¥10.917, up 1.2% from the previous week. The won extended gains, supported by ongoing yen depreciation and expectations of an interest rate hike. The weakening yen and the won’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar lifted the won/yen exchange rate. Additionally, diminished expectations of further U.S. rate hikes provided support for the won. Domestically, the implementation of a rate hike spurred buying of the won. On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced a widely anticipated increase in its policy rate to 2.75%. On the other hand,
Is it holding firm, amid the continuation of U.S.-Iran peace talks and expectations of interest-rate hikes?
Outlook for the week of July 13–17: The KRW/JPY exchange rate is expected to remain supported from below, bolstered by the continuation of U.S.–Iran peace talks and expectations of interest rate hikes. Progress in the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations could serve as a supportive factor for the Korean won, while ongoing rate hike expectations will likely continue to underpin the won. On the other hand, if the Japanese yen strengthens, the KRW/JPY rate could decline. Additionally, with China’s gross domestic product (GDP) data scheduled for release during this week, market participants are likely to adopt a more cautious stance.
The rally continued, driven by further yen depreciation and upward revisions to growth forecasts.
Weekly Overview (July 6–10): KRW/JPY opened at a high of ¥10.842, a low of ¥10.509, and closed at ¥10.788, up 2.27% from the previous week. The Korean won continued to strengthen against the yen, supported by ongoing yen weakness and upward revisions to growth forecasts. The depreciation of the yen provided underlying support for the KRW/JPY exchange rate, while the revised-up GDP growth outlook for Q2 (April–June) — raised from 3.0% to 3.1% in the latest survey — also served as a positive catalyst. Additionally, market expectations of an interest rate hike were well received. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran weighed on the index, as did declines in the equity market.
Remained largely flat, supported by improving economic indicators and other positive factors.
Weekly Overview (June 22–26): KRW/JPY opened at a high of ¥10.552, dipped to a low of ¥10.444, and closed at ¥10.539, essentially flat week-over-week (0% change). The market remained largely range-bound, supported by improving economic indicators. Retail sales in May rose 9.0% year-on-year, surpassing April’s 7.2% increase. Additionally, ongoing JPY weakness provided support to the KRW/JPY exchange rate. However, upside momentum for the won was capped, as concerns over equity market declines and persistent worries about potential U.S. interest rate hikes weighed on sentiment.
Markets rebounded, buoyed by an upside surprise in GDP and other positive factors.
Weekly Overview (June 8–12): The Korean won strengthened against the Japanese yen, reaching a high of ¥10.608, a low of ¥10.271, and closing at ¥10.56, up 2.63% from the previous week. The won rebounded on positive sentiment surrounding an upward revision to GDP figures. The preliminary estimate for Q1 (January–March) GDP growth came in at 3.8%, exceeding both the prior quarter’s result and the forecast of 3.6%. Additionally, rising optimism around U.S.-Iran peace negotiations provided support for the won. On the other hand, concerns about a potential U.S. interest rate hike later this year continued to weigh on the currency.
Caution is warranted due to the recent pullback and heightened uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation.
Weekly Overview (June 1–5): KRW/JPY high: ¥10.63; low: ¥10.25; closing: ¥10.28; week-on-week change: -2.81% ↓ The Korean won weakened against the Japanese yen amid heightened caution over geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Stalled U.S.–Iran peace negotiations contributed to the risk-off sentiment, keeping sellers dominant. Additionally, concerns over accelerating inflation dampened expectations for interest rate cuts. On the other hand, improving economic indicators provided some support, as the May S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from the previous month’s reading of 5