CORAX: Deutsche Bank Currency Flow Analysis
Main pointsReal-money investors continue to sell euros, while systematic hedge funds remain net buyers. The CORAX index for Deutsche Bank shows that over the past two weeks, the euro has faced
Key Currency View: The US dollar is disappointing but the bullish stance is maintained; carry trades perform strongly
Main pointsMaintaining a bullish stance on the U.S. dollar, despite its recent underwhelming performance. Despite the dollar's cheap valuation, the Fed's hawkish repricing, and soaring energy prices,
Norges Bank holds benchmark rate steady as expected; Norwegian krone weakens
The Central Bank of Norway announced it would hold its policy rate steady at 4.25%, in line with expectations, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change. The bank remains open to potential future rate hikes to address price pressures. Governor Ida Wolden Bache stated that while the slowdown in inflation is positive news, inflation remains too high, and it is premature to conclude that inflation expectations have fundamentally shifted. The Norwegian krone fell 0.35% to trade at 9.5207 against the U.S. dollar.
Europe’s stockpile of Patriot missiles is running low, putting Ukraine’s air defense capabilities to the test.
① Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine have led to a shortage of Ukrainian air defense interceptors. In July, Russia launched 195 ballistic missiles, of which Ukraine intercepted only 29; ② The U.S.-Iran conflict has strained U.S. missile inventories, and Trump stated that the United States itself needs missiles and is not currently considering providing additional Patriot interceptors to Ukraine.
Statistics Norway: Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 23.4% year-on-year in July
Gelonghui, August 10 | According to July price data released by Statistics Norway, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 23.4% year-on-year, indicating persistently high price pressures at the production level. Meanwhile, core CPI—excluding volatile components—increased by 0.8% month-on-month and stood at 2.7% year-on-year, signaling a rebound in underlying inflation that may influence Norges Bank’s monetary policy considerations.
The U.S. dollar posted its steepest decline in two weeks; analysts suggest the current rally cycle may have peaked.
After the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, markets scaled back expectations for a September rate hike, sending the dollar to its steepest decline in two weeks on Wednesday.