U.S. core inflation in July matched its lowest level in over five years, temporarily easing the Federal Reserve's rate-hike alarm. However, are oil price volatility and wage declines brewing the next storm?

Notably, wage data released during the same period indicates that workers' real purchasing power continues to decline. Coupled with recurring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving up energy prices, the outlook for U.S. inflation remains highly uncertain.

Zhitong FinanceAug 12 22:07

Fully in line with expectations! The year-on-year increase in the U.S. CPI for July narrowed to 3.4%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year.

Traders maintain their bet on a 45% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

wallstreetcnAug 12 20:56

A 50-50 bet on a rate hike: Tonight at 20:30, CPI data may determine whether the Fed 'pulls the trigger' in September or continues to hold off

Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a rate hike in September. This means tonight’s CPI data could directly tip the balance. If the data aligns with expectations, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold; if it exceeds expectations, it could open the door to a series of consecutive rate hikes.

Golden10 DataAug 12 09:15

U.S. CPI for July arrives tomorrow! JPMorgan outlines five scenarios, with the S&P 500 potentially swinging by as much as 2%.

JPMorgan's trading desk recently warned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could cause the S&P 500 index to swing by as much as 2%.

cls.cnAug 11 22:41

‘The New Fed Wire’ Issues Strong Warning: September Rate Hike Hinges on Inflation Data!

① The so-called 'New Fed Wire' stated that if the U.S. July CPI data released on Wednesday comes in mild, it would simultaneously ease the pressure on both Waller personally and the FOMC to raise interest rates—pressure stemming from their ongoing reassessment of whether they had underestimated the resilience of the U.S. economy. ② Conversely, if the data remains elevated, it could force him to demonstrate through concrete action the point he struggled last month to articulate clearly.

cls.cnAug 11 16:41

Iran stated, 'There are currently no negotiations taking place between Iran and the U.S.,' while Trump remarked that he is 'handling it quietly.'

Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that there are currently “no negotiations whatsoever” between Iran and the United States, with both sides communicating only through intermediaries. Meanwhile, Trump said he is “keeping a low profile” on the Iran issue, noting that the U.S. is engaged in “semi-negotiations” and prefers economic pressure over military escalation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman on a temporary shipping corridor have entered their final stage, but Tehran emphasized that this is unrelated to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains contingent upon the U.S. meeting a series of stringent conditions, including troop withdrawal, compensation, and sanctions relief.

wallstreetcnAug 10 09:28