Distorted data fails to resolve the rate cut puzzle; will the truth about the U.S. economy only emerge next year?

The long-delayed US non-farm payroll and inflation data were released this week. However, given the distortions and cancellations of some reports caused by the government shutdown, these figures are unlikely to provide clear guidance for policy adjustments in 2026...

Golden10 Data18minutes ago

Is the market underestimating the probability of a January interest rate cut? This week's employment and CPI data will be key variables.

UBS Group believes that Powell has not ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in January. His concerns about the labor market now outweigh his worries about upward inflationary pressures. If this week's data confirms continued weakness in the labor market (the key being whether the unemployment rate rises to 4.5%) while inflationary pressures remain manageable, the FOMC may reconsider adopting a more accommodative policy stance. The non-farm payroll reports for both October and November will be released on Tuesday, with CPI data announced on Thursday.

wallstreetcn15:00

Everyone Got It Wrong: Why Is Trump's Tariff Policy Out of Touch with Reality?

Tariffs have proven effective in boosting fiscal revenue, but their performance in promoting employment, curbing inflation, and reviving the manufacturing sector has fallen far short of expectations. However, the unexpected surge in artificial intelligence investments has offset some of the negative impacts.

Golden10 Data14:07

Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

WSJ12:33

Hassett’s Latest Response: If Appointed as Chairman, Trump Would Have “No Influence” on the Federal Reserve’s Decisions

FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) Report – On December 14 local time, Kevin Hassett, Chief Economic Adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, dismissed concerns that he would only push for Trump's personal agenda if selected as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

FX16811:43

Stagnation Followed by a Crash? The US Labor Market May Face Its 'Darkest Hour' Next Year

This year, the U.S. labor market could be described as 'chilling to the bone.' As we approach 2026, this situation is unlikely to improve significantly. Is the deadlock of 'low hiring, low layoffs' a harbinger of a recession or the aftermath of a soft landing?

Golden10 Data10:16