Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy: Escalating Tensions Are Not a Turning Point; Maintain Overweight FX, Neutral Rates and Credit

Main pointsWe maintain an overweight stance on emerging-market FX, focusing on high‑carry and idiosyncratic opportunities. Despite fiscal concerns and rising volatility stemming from energy and

CSOPOct 9 06:06

Sideways movement expected; focus on September inflation rate

This week's outlookOctober 5–9Turkish lira–yenA close contest, or should we focus on September's inflation rate?A close contest, perhaps? Will the September consumer price index, to be released at

Fisco JapanOct 4 10:02

Flat trading as yen selling and rising crude oil prices offset each other.

Market Overview for the Week of September 28–October 2 Turkish Lira/JPY High: 3.2193 JPY; Low: 3.1917 JPY; Close: 3.2106 JPY; Week-on-Week Change: 0% (Flat) The pair traded flat as yen selling and rising crude oil prices offset each other. Yen selling provided support following the receding expectation of an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged on speculation of U.S. military action against Iran, raising concerns about inflation and a deteriorating current account balance, which capped gains for the lira. Against the dollar, the lira continued its gradual downtrend, while it ended nearly unchanged against the yen.

Fisco JapanOct 4 10:01

Sideways trading or a tug-of-war between high interest rates and rising oil prices

This week's outlookSeptember 28–October 2Turkish lira–yenA tug-of-war between a market standoff and high interest rates versus soaring crude oil prices.A tug-of-war, perhaps? While the high policy

Fisco JapanSep 27 12:47

The pair rebounded, supported by yen selling following the exhaustion of market-moving factors.

Last week's overviewSeptember 14–25Turkish lira–yenHigh: 3.2479 yenLowest price: 3.2038 yenClosing price: 3.2105 yenWeek-over-week change: 1.19% ↑A rebound, fueled by yen-selling after the release

Fisco JapanSep 27 12:46

Monthly Report on Yen Capital Flows: In August, Japanese investors net sold foreign debt and bought foreign equities, while cross-border M&A activity continued to weigh on the yen.

Main pointsIn August, Japanese investors continued to adjust their overseas asset allocations, exhibiting a "sell bonds, buy equities" pattern. They net-sold foreign bonds worth 0.1 trillion yen

CSOPSep 24 17:11