Express News | The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 18th.
CICC: Will overseas liquidity face problems?
The rebound to this level is supported by the following factors: 1) High leverage and crowded positions have largely stabilized and been cleared out; 2) Our proprietary AI bubble stress index has improved; 3) Against this backdrop, liquidity has become the focal point likely to drive market dynamics.
[Economy] Switzerland’s Q2 GDP rose 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the fastest growth rate since 2021.
Switzerland's GDP rose by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a 0.3% increase and marking the fastest growth rate since 2021, compared with the previous reading of 0.4%. The industrial sector was the primary driver, particularly growth in the chemical and pharmaceutical segments, which offset cost pressures from rising oil prices; the services sector also recorded overall growth. The Swiss franc edged up by less than 0.1%, trading at 1.2298 against the US dollar.
Express News | The U.S. Dollar Index fell on the 13th.
Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
The modest rise in the U.S. July CPI dampened rate-hike expectations, but the dollar continued to strengthen amid higher oil prices, moving from 158.60 yen to 159.54 yen.
[London Market Overview] In the London foreign exchange market on the 12th, the USD/JPY pair showed resistance to further declines. Although it had been trading mostly flat, it plunged sharply from JPY 159.38 to JPY 158.56, triggered by falling crude oil prices and U.S. long-term interest rates. However, it subsequently recovered to the JPY 159 level. The EUR/USD pair strengthened to USD 1.1541 amid short-term dollar weakness, but later eased to USD 1.1534. The EUR/JPY pair followed the USD/JPY trend, declining from JPY 183.87 to JPY 183.14 before showing slight signs of recovery.