How does Wall Street view the August non-farm payrolls? Strong employment figures have not ended the suspense over a September rate hike; next week's CPI holds "decisive significance."

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August was surprisingly strong, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. However, Wall Street does not believe this resolves the policy uncertainty. According to analysts at multiple institutions, while the robust employment data has indeed strengthened the hand of the hawkish camp within the Fed, it is insufficient on its own to determine the outcome of the September monetary policy meeting. The CPI data scheduled for release next week remains the key factor likely to "set the direction." On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000. Additionally, job gains for the previous two months were revised upward by a combined 55,000, with July's figure being adjusted from a decrease of 23,000.

wallstreetcn03:45

Non-farm payrolls surge! U.S. job growth in August added 162,000 positions, far exceeding expectations, sharply raising the probability of a September rate hike, with next week's CPI data set to be pivotal.

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg survey median expectation of 55,000 and surpassing estimates from all analysts surveyed. Additionally, data for the previous two months were revised upward, with the July figure (-23,000) being adjusted to a positive value.

wallstreetcnSep 4 21:12

How much inflation is there in the U.S. August non-farm payrolls data?

Barclays believes that the August non-farm payrolls figure was overstated. The robust growth was partly driven by a technical rebound in the leisure and hospitality sector as well as local education, rather than reflecting a sustained improvement in labor demand. Adjustments to the birth-death model also contributed to statistical bias. The three-month average of private non-farm payrolls, at 75,000, offers a more reliable reference. Barclays maintains its baseline forecast of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

wallstreetcn10:44

Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly surge, lifting the probability of a September rate hike to approximately 60%, triggering simultaneous repricing in U.S. equities and bonds.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August significantly exceeded expectations, further widening market分歧 over the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September.

wallstreetcn10:15

Strong non-farm payrolls data fails to halt rally: Emerging market currencies extend gains for 10 consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2007

The appreciation of the yen has weakened the U.S. dollar, while the decline in U.S. Treasury yields has triggered capital reallocation, jointly driving up emerging market assets. Although strong U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday briefly sparked market volatility, currencies such as the South African rand and the Mexican peso quickly recovered their losses. Analysts note that market focus has shifted to next week’s U.S. CPI data: if core inflation falls as expected, a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes is virtually certain, potentially sustaining the bull run in emerging markets.

wallstreetcn04:29

Express News | The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 4th.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.27% on the day to close at 99.177 in late trading. At the close of New York forex trading, the euro stood at $1.1611, down from $1.1635 in the previous session; the pound sterling was at $1.3514, lower than $1.3539 previously. The dollar bought ¥156.22, up from ¥155.50; 0.8102 Swiss francs, higher than 0.8068; C$1.3839, compared with C$1.3788; and 9.5775 Swedish kronor, up from 9.5365.

Breakings03:33