On January 21! The battle for the Federal Reserve's independence reaches a crucial 'juncture' – will Powell reenact the events of 1951?
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on January 21 regarding Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Multiple institutions have warned that an adverse ruling for Cook could set a significant precedent for the White House to further push for the removal of Federal Reserve Chair Powell on the grounds of 'just cause,' potentially triggering a prolonged contest between the Fed and the White House.
Inflation Eases but Stalls! U.S. December CPI Remains Flat at 2.7% Year-on-Year, Fueling Expectations for Fed Rate Cut in April
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in December, unchanged from November and in line with market expectations, indicating a 'stall' in the disinflation process towards the end of the year.
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Soft Inflation Reports Could Open Door for Fed Cuts Soon -- Market Talk
CPI Lands in Line With Expectations -- Market Talk
Heads Of Leading Central Banks Back Fed's Powell --Update
Tonight's US CPI: With the impact of the government shutdown fading, core inflation may return to 2.7%. Is the rebound only just beginning?
The U.S. December CPI will be released tonight. As the statistical distortions caused by the government shutdown fade, economists expect the core CPI year-over-year growth rate to rebound to 2.7%. Due to a rebound in housing inflation and potential pass-through of tariff costs, the inflation rate remains stubbornly above the 2% target, causing expectations for a January interest rate cut to almost vanish. Against the complex backdrop of judicial controversies affecting the Federal Reserve's independence, tonight’s data will set the tone for monetary policy direction at the start of 2026.
Dollar Rises After Some Republicans Oppose Powell Investigation -- Market Talk
Fed Chair candidate Riddell speaks: Supports rate cut to 3%.
Blackrock's Global Fixed Income Chief, Li De, a leading candidate to succeed Powell, reiterated his support for cutting interest rates to 3%, representing at least a 50-basis-point reduction from current levels. He confirmed that he will have an interview with Trump on Thursday, during which potential employment issues may be discussed.
Hong Kong dollar liquidity remains soft, with the spot US-Hong Kong exchange rate at 7.7978.
The Hong Kong dollar was soft this morning (August 13), trading between a high of 7.7952 and a low of 7.7990, with the spot rate for US dollars now quoted at 7.7978. The banking system balance on Thursday (August 15) is projected to be HKD 54.069 billion.
Following Powell's lawsuit, the third-ranking official of the Federal Reserve stated: The Federal Reserve is not facing strong pressure to change interest rates.
New York Fed President Williams warned against undermining the central bank's independence, noting that attacks on central bank independence often lead to highly unfavorable economic consequences, including high inflation. He also stated that the current monetary policy stance is robust, with no need for short-term interest rate adjustments. He projected GDP growth of 2.5%-2.75% by 2026 and anticipated inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027.
US inflation may see a 'catch-up' increase tonight, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the spring?
The US will release its December CPI data tonight. Due to the government shutdown, the data has been underestimated for two months, prompting widespread market caution over a 'technical rebound.' The叠加of tariff rulings, employment signals from this week, and the political风波surrounding Powell have made this data a pivotal turning point for US inflation and policy trajectory.
GOP Senators Criticize Probe of Fed Chair Powell -- Update
Breaking news from the Trump administration! Bloomberg exclusive: TA is seen as the key driver behind the push to issue a subpoena to Powell.
FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) reported exclusively on Monday (January 12) that, according to sources familiar with the matter, Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), was the main driving force behind the Trump administration’s decision to issue a subpoena to the Federal Reserve.
"It's a mess"! Bessent Rarely "Expresses Dissatisfaction with Trump": Investigating Powell Could Disturb Financial Markets and Make Him "Even More Reluctant to Hand Over Power"
According to Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called President Trump on Sunday evening to express concerns over a federal-level investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the move "messed things up" and could be detrimental to financial markets. The market reaction on Monday partially confirmed these concerns: the dollar weakened, bond yields rose, and gold prices climbed as investors worried about political interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Recent Dollar Gains Prove Short-Lived Amid Threats to Fed's Independence -- Market Talk