Halftime: Financing Boom vs. Tight Liquidity
Following the mid-point, market performance is expected to broaden within the upper arm of a K-shaped recovery driven by safety and investment themes. In addition to AI hardware, sectors such as AI applications, industrials, and commodities are also poised to enter their next phase of growth.
Brent crude surges above $90! Risk of uncontrolled U.S.-Iran conflict escalates sharply, with three U.S. military personnel killed in two days—Trump faces a critical test.
Trump previously warned Iran that it would face a stronger response if it killed U.S. military personnel. Now, with consecutive U.S. military deaths and escalating attacks between both sides, tensions in the Middle East are once again approaching a dangerous tipping point.
Markets had just breathed a sigh of relief when two hawkish Federal Reserve officials issued fresh warnings: inflation is far from over, and they support moderate rate hikes.
Cooling U.S. inflation data has spurred markets to heavily bet on the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes, but policymakers are sending markedly different signals. Dallas Fed President Logan and Kansas City Fed President Schmid have both warned that a single month of improved inflation is insufficient to declare victory, and if prices fail to sustainably decline, further policy tightening could still be on the table.
Wash ends his Capitol Hill visit! A summary of what he said over the past two days.
To truly establish and maintain the Federal Reserve's credibility in the coming months, he must deliver a performance in combating inflation and resisting political interference that genuinely convinces both the markets and Congress.
Trump reiterated his hope for lower interest rates, stating that holding steady is better than raising rates and expressing great respect for Warsh.
Trump also stated that Iran is very eager to reach a reconciliation, and once the situation in Iran stabilizes, oil prices will fall to $55 per barrel. He expects inflation by year-end to be lower than it is now.
Fed's Third-in-Command: Interest rates are in a favorable position, and there is reason to believe inflation has peaked.
John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent voting member of the FOMC and often regarded as the third-most influential official at the Federal Reserve), stated that although AI-driven demand is exerting upward pressure on inflation, the current stance of monetary policy remains "well positioned" to bring inflation back to the 2% target.