Warnings from multiple major Wall Street banks: The Fed's interest rate cuts will restart the dollar's decline next year.
①Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank, predict that the dollar will resume its decline next year as the Federal Reserve continues with its rate-cutting cycle. ②However, the decline of the dollar next year is expected to be more moderate and not as widespread as this year, when it fell against all major currencies.
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DWS: The US labor market is back in focus, maintaining the forecast of two more Fed rate cuts next year.
Looking ahead, DWS believes that the labor market will continue to be a key factor, as most Fed officials seem to once again agree with the view that inflation is transitory.
The 'most important information' from Powell's press conference was not about interest rate cuts or balance sheet expansion, but rather the 'systematic overestimation of employment.' The Federal Reserve anticipates 'negative employment growth.'
At the December FOMC meeting that just concluded, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and expanded its balance sheet: as expected, it reduced rates by 25 basis points and announced in advance a plan for 'reserve management bond purchases,' with an initial round of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds.