U.S. forces resume blockade against Iran; Trump warns of 'heavy strikes' tonight or tomorrow and imposes a 20% fee on Strait shipping.
Iranian media reported that Iran shot down a U.S. military drone over the Strait; explosions were heard from Larak Island, located in the Strait, and from Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. Trump stated that U.S. fees on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz are intended to offset necessary expenditures for maintaining regional security, and that the relevant procedures and deployments would commence immediately. The U.S. military will impose a naval blockade on Iran starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the 14th. It was reported that Trump has notified Congress of the renewed outbreak of hostilities with Iran. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) opposes levying tolls on straits used for international navigation. Iran’s Foreign Minister described the U.S.-proposed fee rate as “excessive.”
Express News | Markets are nearly fully pricing in expectations of a Fed rate hike before September.
Update: Trump plans to reinstate sanctions on Iran and proposes a 20% transit fee on goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. stock indices fall and oil prices surge.
U.S. President Trump stated that he plans to reinstate a blockade on Iranian vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and suggested imposing tolls on cargo using this critical chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil flows. The announcement triggered a sharp rise in crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, while U.S. equities declined. By early afternoon Monday, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.4% to 25,921.3, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 52,505.5, and the S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 7,529. Technology stocks led the losses, while energy shares posted the largest gains. Chevron (CVX.US) rose 2.6%, marking the second-largest gain on the Dow.
Trump announced the reimposition of sanctions on Iran and a 20% 'protection fee' on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump unveiled a new proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly catching Gulf allies off guard. International oil prices surged immediately in response, prompting markets to raise expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while gold prices briefly approached the $4,000 mark.
Express News | Trump: Reinstate sanctions on Iran effective immediately and impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments.
Trump claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to warn that conflict would spread across the entire region.
Tensions between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz have escalated sharply, prompting heightened market concerns about the security of this critical global oil transit corridor.
Express News | U.S. President Trump: If the filibuster rule is not terminated, the government may shut down in September.
Express News | Iran: Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
China Futures Association: National futures market trading volume in June reached 939.26 million lots, up 27.00% year-on-year.
On July 13, the China Futures Association released the Brief Report on National Futures Market Trading Activities for June 2026.
Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz! Iranian missiles strike multiple Gulf states; Iran announces closure of the strait again.
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has escalated significantly. Iran has expanded its strike range to include Gulf states such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, and has once again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, the U.S. continues airstrikes on Iranian military targets, with Trump stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains 'open.'
Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. forces stated they were launching strikes against Iran and explosions were heard in multiple Iranian locations.
On July 12, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all vessel traffic until the United States ceases its intervention. The U.S. military declared it would strike Iran in response to attacks on civilian vessels in the strait. Explosions were subsequently reported in southern Iran, including in Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Qeshm Island, and Chabahar Port. The IRGC warned that if the U.S. uses this as a pretext for new attacks, Iran will respond forcefully and target additional U.S. bases in the Middle East.
Express News | Trump: Agrees to continue negotiations with Iran, but the ceasefire has ended
Five Working Groups Emerge—Wu’s 'United Front' Aims for Rate Cuts?
The policy framework reform spearheaded by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has entered a substantive phase—with five working groups officially unveiled on July 9, bringing together heavyweight figures including the former Bank of England governor, a Nobel laureate in economics, and Marc Andreessen. This development follows the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) quiet adjustment to its PCE calculation methodology, prompting warnings from Goldman Sachs and UBS Group that inflation readings will be systematically understated. China Securities Research has outlined a clear three-step roadmap: personnel appointments, framework overhaul, and a dovish pivot—culminating in an anticipated rate cut in the fourth quarter.
Inside NATO Summit’s 48 Hours: Trump’s Emotional Rollercoaster Shakes the Globe
During his 48 hours in Ankara, Turkey, Trump nearly became the focal point of global diplomatic momentum. Markets, allies, Ukraine, and Iran all swiftly adjusted their expectations based on his statements.
Gold’s Worst Quarter in 13 Years! Safe-Haven Myth Shaken as Investors Reassess Whether to Hold Gold
Gold futures plunged more than 14% in the second quarter, marking their worst quarterly performance since 2013. The sharp decline in gold prices has prompted investors to reconsider gold's safe-haven appeal, but analysts note that gold does not necessarily rise during every market turmoil; its true value lies more in long-term risk diversification and hedging against extreme events.
U.S. Stocks Rise As War Jitters Ease -- Update
Day Two After the 'End' of the Ceasefire: U.S. Expands Strikes, Iranian Retaliation Reaches Qatar Base, Trump Fights and Negotiates Simultaneously
The U.S. military's second wave of airstrikes expanded to the Bushehr region, striking approximately 90 military targets. Iran retaliated by launching drones for the first time against U.S. military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, prompting multiple Gulf states to activate air defense alerts. Although Trump stated he did not believe another war would break out, the conflict continues to spill over, causing significant volatility in international oil prices.
Military tensions have escalated sharply, with both countries adopting firm stances, putting the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding at risk.
“In my view, it’s over,” U.S. President Trump said on May 8 in Ankara, Turkey, during the NATO summit, when asked about the memorandum of understanding with Iran.
Wall Street's Take on the Fed's June Meeting Minutes: Focus Remains on Inflation, No Urgency for Rate Hikes in the Near Term
Minutes from the meeting indicated that all participants supported maintaining interest rates unchanged, with only a 'minority' seeing grounds for a rate hike but ultimately taking no action. Wall Street institutions view the inflation trajectory as the key variable for the policy path—if inflation subsides quickly, rates will be held steady or lowered; if it remains persistently high, some degree of tightening will be warranted. Meanwhile, market pricing for near-term rate hikes is overly aggressive, with the baseline scenario assuming unchanged rates throughout 2026.
Materials Down as Rate, Inflation Fears Resurface - Materials Roundup