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Hong Kong to Launch Five-Year Government Bond in August
Key data from the Two Sessions has been released, showing a moderate expansion in new government debt this year, with the highlight being an RMB 800 billion new policy-oriented financial instrument.
① The fiscal deficit ratio for this year is projected at approximately 4%, with a deficit size of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion compared to the previous year; the issuance amounts for ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special-purpose bonds will remain unchanged. ② Multiple projects supported by new policy-backed financial instruments are engineering projects spanning the construction period from 2025 to 2026. After receiving capital injections from these instruments, their construction phases will continue to be implemented in 2026.
A complete turnaround! The global bond market has officially entered a bull market, while government bonds continue to "lag behind"...
① With the comprehensive recovery of the fixed income market, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks the returns of sovereign and corporate bonds in both developed and emerging markets, has surged over 20% since its low point in 2022; ② This not only marks the highest level since March 2022 but also officially declares a return to a technical bull market.
Cailian Press C50 Wind Direction Index Survey: August credit and social financing may see year-on-year growth decline, with the year-on-year decline in PPI expected to narrow.
① The issuance pace is misaligned, with the net financing scale of government bonds in August expected to show a year-on-year decrease; ② The interest subsidy policy for consumer loans and business loans will be implemented starting this month, which may lead to a concentrated release of real credit demand in September; ③ The active stock market in August has prompted residents to move their deposits, potentially driving an increase in the money supply.
The new round of sell-offs in China's bond market shows no signs of stopping; is a buying opportunity on the horizon?
The yield on China's 30-year government bonds has risen to its highest level this year, as the market anticipates positive results from the China-U.S. trade negotiations, coupled with increased efforts from Beijing to boost the economy, prompting traders to shift from the bond market to the stock market.
The equity market has reached a new high, while sentiment in the bond market has been dampened, with ultra-long bonds rising above 2% for the first time in four months.
Last week, funds and brokers returned to being net sellers, while major banks significantly increased their bond-buying efforts, becoming the most notable highlight of the recent divergence among institutions, with net purchases of interest-bearing bonds reaching 123.6 billion yuan.