Scale Doubles! What Signal Does the U.S. Treasury’s Announcement to Expand Long-Term Treasury Buybacks Send?
Following a sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities, the U.S. Department of the Treasury intervened urgently by announcing a significant expansion of its long-term Treasury repurchase operations. Consequently, yields on long-dated Treasuries declined rapidly, with the 30-year yield dropping to 5.193% at one point. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged sharply, while precious metals markets surged across the board.
Gold Prices Pop After Treasury Moves to Push Down Bond Yields -- WSJ
Express News | The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced an expansion in the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond repurchases.
Critical Moment for U.S. Treasuries: $16 Billion Long-Term Bond Auction and Fed Minutes to Test Markets on Thursday
Amid global bond market volatility, the U.S. market faces two major tests on the same day: a $16 billion auction of 20-year Treasury notes will gauge long-end demand amid massive deficits, while the Federal Reserve’s July hawkish meeting minutes will influence short-end rate hike expectations. If these factors resonate, they could drive the yield curve higher overall, exacerbating pressure on highly valued tech stocks and global financial markets.
As the 60/40 portfolio strategy falters, is gold taking center stage as a defensive asset? Morgan Stanley’s Wilson: The bull market will continue into 2025.
Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, argues that the simultaneous decline in equities and bonds in 2022 exposed the defensive limitations of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. As the correlation between stocks and bonds rises, investors need to seek new hedging instruments, thereby enhancing gold’s allocation appeal. The bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once each in January and March 2027; if this path materializes, ETF funds are expected to flow back into the gold market.
Gold short squeeze enters second phase: macro signals align with technicals, $4,500 emerges as key resistance
Analysis indicates that the technical outlook for gold confirmed a bullish crossover with the 50-day moving average on the 21st, while the macroeconomic landscape saw a return to dual resonance driven by Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and Japan's ultra-long-end yields.
Gold Gains as Dollar Moves Lower on Reduced Bets for Fed Rate Hike
“With U.S. debt nearing $40 trillion, going long on gold is the optimal strategy for now!”—Latest outlook from Bank of America’s Hartnett
Hartnett pointed out that U.S. Treasury debt will not only surpass $40 trillion in the coming days but is also on track to hit $50 trillion around 2029. In this environment, Hartnett believes that going long on gold is the optimal strategy, as it remains the best hedge against dollar depreciation, bond market collapse, and asset inflation.
Trump issues threat to Oman: Direct airstrikes will be launched if it dares to obstruct the U.S.-Iran peace agreement!
U.S. President Trump has begun threatening to intervene in Oman, which is mediating between the United States and Iran. Earlier, the Iranian military and Ministry of Foreign Affairs took a hardline stance, directly accusing the U.S. of reneging on its commitments and warning that it would employ all available means to countermeasure.
U.S. Treasury debt to surpass $40 trillion; Bank of America: Going long on gold is a prudent move
Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, bases his bullish thesis not on Federal Reserve rate cuts, but on surging U.S. fiscal pressures and aggressive gold accumulation by central banks worldwide. He bets that these two structural supports will drive a significant rally in gold, independent of the interest rate cycle.
Express News | Reuters: Iranian senior official states that a deadline of several weeks has been set for the United States to fully implement the memorandum of understanding.
CICC: Will overseas liquidity face problems?
The rebound to this level is supported by the following factors: 1) High leverage and crowded positions have largely stabilized and been cleared out; 2) Our proprietary AI bubble stress index has improved; 3) Against this backdrop, liquidity has become the focal point likely to drive market dynamics.
Deutsche Bank: Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows drive gold into an "explosive" rally phase
Deutsche Bank believes that the fifth "explosive" rally phase for gold, which began in 2024, is still ongoing. Central bank demand for gold has reached a record high in real USD terms, with approximately half of this demand not reported to the IMF. Global ETF inflows have turned positive again, with Asian buying being particularly prominent. The bank has set its year-end target range for gold at $4,700–$5,100 per ounce, citing the continued expansion of U.S. government debt as the core driver. Current futures positioning remains low, suggesting that the upside potential has not yet been fully priced in.
Bank of America: Do not bet solely on AI; recommends going long both “Pride” and “Prejudice,” while positioning in gold and Hong Kong real estate.
Bank of America posits that the optimal strategy amid the AI bubble is to simultaneously go long on "arrogance" (AI technology stocks) and "prejudice" (neglected, underperforming assets shunned by the market), while shorting AI-related bonds. Although Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator is in extreme territory, capital is flowing into gold and commodities, with private client equity allocations hitting record highs. Amid debt pressures and yield volatility, avoiding the U.S. dollar and bonds remains the central theme.
Unexpected Turn to Negative! U.S. Retail Sales Fell 0.6% Month-on-Month in July, Marking the Largest Decline in Over a Year
Just as inflation begins to cool, U.S. consumer spending has suddenly weakened, making the Federal Reserve’s policy choices more nuanced and reducing the likelihood of multiple rate hikes within the year...
Express News | US July Retail Sales MoM -0.6% Vs +0.1% Forecast, Prior +0.2%
Gold prices retreated from highs to resume range-bound trading.
Spot gold extended the previous session's pullback during Friday's Asian trading hours. After touching a two-month high of approximately $4,450, prices remained under pressure but found some support near the $4,300 level. Following a rapid rally that saw cumulative gains exceed 8% since August, the current decline reflects not only the influence of the U.S. dollar and interest rates but also significant profit-taking pressure. On August 13, spot gold briefly reached around $4,449 before retreating to near $4,350, prompting the market to reassess the balance of bullish and bearish forces around the $4,500 psychological barrier. The latest U.S. inflation data provided...
UBS Group forecasts that gold prices could challenge the $5,000 mark in the first half of next year, supported by declining real interest rates and central bank gold purchases.
In their latest report, UBS Group strategists stated that declining real interest rates will drive investors back to the gold market, while a weaker U.S. dollar and robust central bank gold purchases will jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000 per ounce mark in the first half of next year.
Divergence Among Fed Officials Emerges: Barkin Supports Holding Steady, Hammack Insists on Rate Hike
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin supports holding interest rates steady, arguing that inflation stems primarily from temporary shocks, but warns that AI investment and supply chain dynamics could exert persistent price pressures. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, meanwhile, reaffirmed her stance in favor of rate hikes, cautioning against financial stability risks such as U.S. Treasury leverage and an AI bubble. With unemployment remaining low and economic data presenting a mixed picture, the Federal Reserve’s policy path for its September meeting is fraught with uncertainty.
Inflation cools more than expected! U.S. July PPI growth narrows to 4.7%, driven primarily by lower energy costs
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month in July, with the year-on-year rate declining to 4.7%. The core PPI fell to 4.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by lower energy prices and a slowdown in service price inflation. The widening divergence between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the PPI is putting pressure on corporate profit margins. Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes remain unchanged, with the view that there is limited urgency for short-term policy adjustments. Future inflation trends will continue to depend on changes in energy prices.