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Have China-based internet giants hit bottom? Bernstein: AI costs are being overly pessimistically interpreted; focus on Tencent.
Bernstein believes the most pessimistic phase for Chinese internet stocks may have passed, and market concerns over AI inference costs have been significantly overstated. With Tencent's HY3 launch and Alibaba Cloud accelerating its growth, conditions are accumulating for a valuation recovery in the sector. Among them, Tencent remains the top pick, with a target price of HK$780, implying approximately 69% upside from current levels.
On-site Coverage of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference: Fund Managers Survey Three Key Areas
The strongest signal emerging from this year’s exhibition is that AI is rapidly moving beyond 'concept demonstrations' and into the physical world—many of the new products showcased are no longer lab prototypes but mature, mass-producible, and deployable solutions.
WAIC 2026 Spotlight | Tickets resold outside the venue for RMB 1,300; robots 'split up' inside the exhibition hall
① This year’s WAIC embodied intelligence exhibition area has shown a clear shift—the 'job roles' of robots are beginning to differentiate. The industry is moving from the stage of building general-purpose robots toward deep specialization by specific scenarios. ② Yao Maoqing, Partner at Zhiyuan, believes that the 'GPT-3.5 moment' could arrive by the end of 2027 or early 2028; however, You Yangwei, Head of Bionic Control for Xiaomi Robotics, expressed greater caution: 'That’s a somewhat optimistic estimate.'
AI Infrastructure Enters a New Race of 'Optoelectronic Integration' | WAIC Observations
① AI infrastructure is entering a new phase of competition centered on 'optoelectronic integration,' with a notably increased presence of photonic technologies during this year's WAIC; ② Currently, NPO is regarded by the industry as a more pragmatic technical approach for domestically developed GPUs to build super-nodes, the commercialization of CPO is accelerating, and optical computing is entering its market penetration phase; ③ Industrial collaboration capabilities are becoming critical to the development of optoelectronic computing power.
A battery consumption tax could accelerate industry consolidation, with CATL better positioned to withstand pressure; the impact on passenger vehicles would be limited, while energy storage project returns would be more sensitive.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs believe that the battery consumption tax, classified under 'Taxes and Surcharges,' does not affect revenue or gross margin but will have a certain impact on operating profit and net profit. Industry leaders remain broadly resilient, with CATL (03750.HK) exhibiting the strongest resilience due to its high share of overseas revenue, substantial profit buffers, and strong pricing power. Domestic-focused manufacturers with weaker profitability face greater pressure. The impact on passenger vehicle end-markets is limited, but energy storage project returns are more sensitive, potentially accelerating industry consolidation. With China's battery consumption tax now finalized, the competitive landscape of the sector may be reshaped at an accelerated pace. On July 17, China’s Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation
Preview of Alibaba's new flagship model Qwen3.8: 2.4 trillion parameters, rivaling Fable 5 and Kimi 3
The model supports multimodal processing, including images, videos, and documents, and has already been launched on platforms such as Qoder, with full model weights to be openly released "very soon." Notably, Moonshot AI—a company backed by Alibaba—has just set a new record with Kimi K3, a model featuring 2.8 trillion parameters, intensifying the internal competition within Alibaba's investment portfolio over the title of the 'largest open model.'