Hang Seng CMS Bloomberg US Treasury 1-3 Year Index ETF (03436) News

Nonfarm payrolls arrive tonight at 20:30! Wall Street forecasts diverge: 18,000 or 80,000? Markets brace for high volatility.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July is set to be released tonight, with Wall Street forecasts ranging widely from 18,000 to 83,000, signaling imminent market volatility. With the Federal Reserve's policy path still uncertain and risks of Japanese yen intervention looming, the cost of dollar options has quietly risen to a recent high, as investors brace for potential surprises.

Golden10 DataAug 7 08:49

How should the United States respond to the U.S. Treasury bond yield crisis?

What is the U.S. government most afraid of right now? That long-end Treasury yields—represented by the 10-year note—continue to rise. Over the past decade or so, the U.S. market has implicitly assumed that a normal interest rate range was roughly 0% to 2%; a 10-year Treasury yield above 3% was considered high, and anything above 5% nearly signaled a crisis. Yet an increasing number of observers are now questioning whether the U.S. economy may have entered an era of 'high nominal growth and high interest rates,' suggesting that the new long-term neutral rate for the U.S. might be around 4%, not 2%. Why? Because several factors rarely seen simultaneously in the past are now occurring together: sustained fiscal expansion, a surge in AI-related capital expenditures, manufacturing reshoring, and increased energy investment.

Ideological ImprintAug 3 10:33

Pressure on the long end of U.S. Treasuries persists after the U.S. PCE data release: the 30-year yield approaches 5.2%, and the term premium widens.

The Federal Reserve's decision this week to hold interest rates steady continued to roil bond markets. Long-end U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated following the release of the latest economic data, as persistent inflation and labor market resilience heightened market divergence over the future rate hike path. A steepening yield curve fueled increased demand for safe-haven assets. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged by more than 10 basis points on Wednesday to its highest level since 2007, and held near 5.20% on Thursday. On Thursday, the U.S. reported that the June PCE price index declined by 0.1% month-over-month—the first monthly drop since 2020—with the year-over-year increase narrowing to 3.7% from April’s 4.1%. Excluding energy

wallstreetcnJul 31 06:48

Wu Shou: Unwavering Commitment to the 2% Inflation Target, Maintaining Independence, and Focusing on AI-Driven Transformation (Full Text Attached)

Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that the 2% inflation target has 'no room for flexibility' and emphasized that the Fed will not deviate from its mandate due to market or external pressures such as military conflicts or tariff adjustments. Surging AI-related capital expenditures are driving up prices for memory and other components, and the timing and magnitude of these supply-side effects remain difficult to predict, increasing the complexity of monetary policy formulation. He downplayed forward guidance, urging markets to 'follow the data rather than fixate on the central bank.'

wallstreetcnJul 30 06:04

The most hawkish split in a decade? The Fed holds steady, reaffirms its inflation commitment, but three voting members support a rate hike.

‘The New Fed Wire’: This marks the first time since 2016 that three voting members of the FOMC cast dissenting votes aligned on the same policy stance. The statement indicated that one-quarter of voting members supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. It reiterated that the conflict in the Middle East has created significant economic uncertainty, inflation remains elevated—partly due to higher energy prices—and the economy continues to expand steadily, with the unemployment rate remaining largely unchanged.

wallstreetcnJul 30 03:05

The more the Fed panics, the more stable U.S. Treasuries become? BofA's Hartnett: Wash may be forced to raise rates to curb surging long-end yields

The real yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury note has risen to 3%, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Michael Hartnett, chief strategist at Bank of America, believes that if newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh aims to stabilize the long end of the yield curve, he may need to proactively raise interest rates. "Investors are advised to shift toward defensive sectors and long-duration assets while avoiding bank, technology, and industrial stocks."

wallstreetcnJul 24 23:23

Is there a 30% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week?

Amid the dual impact of rising oil prices and the absence of forward guidance from the Federal Reserve, markets have begun to reprice policy risk. Although mainstream economists uniformly expect the Fed to remain on hold next week, the implied probability of a rate hike priced into interest rate markets has risen to approximately 30%, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the curve. Specifically, the two-year Treasury yield hit a new high since early 2025, the 10-year yield reached its highest level this year, and the 30-year yield approached its highest point since 2007. A research report published by Citi on July 23 argues that this market pricing does not necessarily indicate investors are broadly betting on an imminent Fed rate hike, but rather reflects

wallstreetcnJul 24 00:14

"Bond vigilantes" cast a shadow once again, with the number of days the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeded 5% reaching its highest level in nearly two decades

Bond vigilantes refer to investors exerting fiscal pressure on governments by engaging in large-scale sell-offs of government bonds, compelling them to restore fiscal discipline. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury note has remained above 5% for 12 consecutive trading days this year, reaching a record high. So far this year, the yield has exceeded 5% on 27 trading days, accounting for approximately 19% of all trading days. Amid persistently elevated long-end yields, portfolio managers have broadly shifted toward 5- to 7-year bonds to mitigate exposure to long-duration risk.

wallstreetcnJul 23 06:30

Bad Week for the 'Ants' as Ripple Effects of Korean Crash Spread Out Across Asia

MarketWatchJul 17 21:55

Hoisington, a long-time bull on U.S. Treasuries for over three decades, has made a rare shift in stance, warning that the long-running bull market in U.S. long-term bonds may be coming to an end.

Hoisington Investment Management Co., long a steadfast bull on U.S. Treasuries, has now taken the rare step of reversing its stance.

Zhitong FinanceJul 16 23:32

U.S. Treasury: Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rebounded in May to the second-highest level on record, with Canada recording the largest increase and Japan’s holdings declining.

In May, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rose to $9.37 trillion, the second-highest level on record. Canada led the increase with an addition of $38.7 billion, followed by the United Kingdom with $11.1 billion and China with $8.2 billion. However, Japan, the largest foreign holder, reduced its holdings by $66.8 billion—a move widely attributed by markets to Japan's foreign exchange intervention, which involved selling U.S. Treasuries to raise funds.

wallstreetcnJul 15 05:26

Waller’s hearing debut may face numerous tough questions: on inflation, reaction function, interest rates, independence, and more

Facing questioning from lawmakers tonight, Wall Street does not expect the Federal Reserve's new chair— who has refused to offer any forward guidance—to provide clear answers, and only hopes he will share his views on the economy.

Golden10 DataJul 14 12:29

Express News | US Jun. Non-Farm Payrolls +57000 Vs +110000 Forecast, Prior +129000

BreakingsJul 2 20:30

Worsening market concerns as Worshe downplays forward guidance, with Wall Street warning of heightened U.S. Treasury volatility

Multiple institutions believe that if the Federal Reserve reduces its policy signaling in the future, it could increase market uncertainty regarding the interest rate path and exacerbate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market.

Zhitong FinanceJul 2 06:22

“Waller’s Debut” a “Once-in-a-Decade Turning Point”? Nomura Warns Against Preventive Rate Hikes Evolving into Substantive Tightening

Nomura Securities' Chief Macro Strategist Matsuzawa noted that markets have significantly underestimated the risk of a prolonged Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle. He argued that AI-related investment expansion and productivity gains will drive economic growth and inflation above expectations, forcing the Fed to shift from 'preemptive hikes' into a substantive tightening cycle, which would push the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield well above 5%. He warned that, in hindsight, this FOMC meeting could mark the historical starting point of the end of the credit cycle fueled by the AI boom.

wallstreetcnJun 21 10:19

Regarding Hormuz! Trump makes latest statement; U.S.-Iran technical-level talks to be held Sunday

① Over the weekend, the United States and Iran once again gave conflicting accounts regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz; ② U.S. President Trump issued a new warning that if a final agreement with Iran is not reached within 60 days, the United States will impose a toll on transit through the Strait of Hormuz; ③ Representatives from both sides are scheduled to hold their first round of technical-level talks in Switzerland on Sunday, and the Iranian negotiating delegation has already arrived in Zurich, Switzerland.

cls.cnJun 21 09:31

Express News | The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with nine officials projecting rate hikes in 2026.

BreakingsJun 18 02:01

Are the sharp fluctuations in long-end U.S. Treasury yields a false breakout or the beginning of a new round of repricing?

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has now retreated to the lower boundary of its upward channel, while the 30-year Treasury yield has broken below its horizontal support level but remains above the 5% threshold. In the most recent bout of interest rate volatility, equity markets have shown renewed sensitivity to interest rates, yet the VIX has remained relatively subdued. Close attention should be paid to leading indicators such as oil prices, as a potential rise in interest rates could trigger significant equity market volatility.

wallstreetcnMay 27 02:28

JPMorgan CEO: Interest rates could rise significantly, and inflation will make investors reluctant to hold long-term bonds.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the global bond market adjustment is not yet over. The world is currently shifting from 'excess savings' to 'savings deficiency,' and combined with the AI investment boom, geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices, and widening fiscal deficits, medium- to long-term inflationary pressures continue to intensify. Inflation expectations are eroding the real returns of long-duration fixed-income assets, reducing investors’ willingness to hold long-term bonds and increasing the risk of widening credit spreads.

wallstreetcnMay 22 02:32

Former White House adviser warns: Oil crisis looms over the U.S., Treasury yields risk spiraling out of control

The United States is facing an oil price shock that is more complex and constrained by fewer policy tools than the 2022 energy crisis. According to the Financial Times, Amos Hochstein, former senior White House energy advisor, warned that upward pressure on oil prices is far from over and will push up long-term U.S. Treasury yields through both inflationary and fiscal channels. On one hand, physical supply disruptions caused by restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz are unprecedented in scale and cannot be restored in the short term; on the other hand, a structural 'refining bottleneck' means that even if crude oil supplies recover, refineries cannot quickly convert them into gasoline. Meanwhile, the two key tools used to address the oil price crisis in 2022

wallstreetcnMay 21 00:28