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Express News | Caixin News Midday Digest – July 17
The most accurate analyst predicts the yen will depreciate to as low as 170 against the U.S. dollar next year.
Gelonghui, July 17 | According to Bloomberg’s latest rankings, the analyst most accurate in forecasting the USD/JPY exchange rate believes the yen could fall as low as 170 per U.S. dollar next year. His forecasting model largely ignores news events and relies primarily on technical analysis. Vikram Murarka, founder and chief currency strategist at Kshitij Consultancy Services, makes his yen forecasts from his office in Kolkata, India—thousands of miles from Tokyo. In the previous quarter’s survey, he was the most accurate in predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate and was among the few who had anticipated that move.
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Citi published a research report noting that global equities have cumulatively risen by approximately 10% year-to-date, though gains have been concentrated in technology stocks. With geopolitical risks easing and AI-related trades becoming crowded, signs of capital rotation are emerging. Citi expects investor focus has now shifted to whether the rally will broaden into other sectors in the second half of the year. According to Citi, such broadening will depend on sustained cyclical improvement in macroeconomic conditions and earnings-per-share expectations, as well as whether the exceptional outperformance of tech stocks has temporarily run its course. Citi continues to anticipate elevated volatility related to AI over the coming quarter and maintains its medium-term 'overweight' stance on global information technology and U.S. equities. It has downgraded its rating on Japanese equities from 'underweight' to...
The market declined, weighed down by escalating tensions in the Middle East and selling pressure from ETFs to secure dividend payouts.
Market Summary for Last Week (July 6–10): The Nikkei 225 reached a high of ¥70,384.59, a low of ¥66,819.05, and closed at ¥68,557.73, down 1.7% from the previous week. The market declined amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and selling pressure linked to ETF dividend payouts. Although the index briefly traded above the 70,000-yen mark early in the week, profit-taking dominated as concerns grew over overheating in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks. Escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, coupled with forced selling from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to cover dividend distributions, further weighed on the market. In the latter part of the week, U.S.