Asian Equities Fall, Government Bonds Under Pressure as U.S.-Iran Conflict Rekindles
As U.S. Treasury yields surged, Asia-Pacific equity markets pulled back in 17 out of the past 20 instances over the last five years.
The rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields is becoming one of the biggest risks to the AI-driven rally in Asian stock markets, highlighting the vulnerability of technology companies to elevated borrowing costs.
Nikkei May Fall, Tracking Wall Street's Losses -- Market Talk
Japan's Q2 GDP falls short of expectations; will the Bank of Japan alter its interest rate hiking pace?
Japan's economic growth in the second quarter fell significantly short of expectations, as private consumption stagnated and corporate investment contracted sharply. Although inflationary pressures persist, weak domestic demand has placed the Bank of Japan in a difficult position, forcing a trade-off between growth and inflation, thereby complicating the outlook for future interest rate hikes.
Nikkei Rises 0.5%; Weaker 2Q GDP Growth Could Prompt a BOJ Hold -- Market Talk
Nikkei May Rise on Lingering Hopes for Fed Rate-Hike Pause -- Market Talk
Markets continued to rise, supported by gains in U.S. tech stocks.
Market Overview for the Week of August 10–14 Nikkei Stock Average: High: ¥69,608.24 Low: ¥65,848.58 Close: ¥68,713.80 Week-on-week change: +4.74% The Nikkei continued its upward trend, supported by gains in U.S. technology stocks. Buying interest was dominant from the start of the week, centered on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor-related stocks, as expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes receded following the release of U.S. employment statistics. Against the backdrop of slowing growth in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. tech stocks rose, pushing the Nikkei average to a temporary high of 69,60...
Markets rebounded as buying interest in AI-related semiconductor stocks intensified.
Market Overview for Last Week (August 10–14) Nikkei Stock Average: High: 66,302.52 yen Low: 62,703.47 yen Close: 65,606.71 yen Week-on-week change: +1.93% The market rebounded as buying returned to AI and semiconductor-related stocks. Selling dominated early in the week due to factors such as the appreciation of the yen following coordinated intervention by Japan and the US to buy the currency. However, mid-week saw a sharp rise in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, driven by gains in US hyperscaler and semiconductor stocks. In the latter half of the week, selling pressure on these related stocks resurfaced, but on the downside,
$87 billion intervention curbs carry-trade shorting opportunities; yen retraces half its gains, approaching 160, as the Takaichi administration strongly backs an autumn rate hike
The record-breaking joint foreign exchange intervention by Japan and the United States failed to reverse the yen's weakness, instead providing carry traders with an opportunity to rebuild short yen positions at higher levels. In the face of wide interest rate differentials, any effort to support the yen may simply offer new entry points for short sellers. The approximately $87 billion in joint intervention undertaken by Japan and the U.S. in late July resulted only in a brief rebound in the exchange rate. According to market observers such as JPMorgan Private Bank and State Street Bank & Trust, hedge funds had halved their short yen positions by August 4, but some investors have already begun returning to yen-funded carry trades, causing the yen to give back its gains.
Report: Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as September, with potential acceleration in subsequent hikes
According to three sources cited by media outlets, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as its September 17–18 policy meeting and is considering accelerating the pace of tightening thereafter. Since 2024, the BOJ has raised rates at a pace of approximately twice a year. The market has currently priced in an nearly 80% probability of a rate hike in September.
The yen is once again approaching the 160 level, prompting a former Japanese foreign exchange diplomat to warn that the United States and Japan could jointly intervene in the currency market "at any time," while the Bank of Japan may accelerate its intere
A former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat stated that Japan may intensify its intervention in the yen market, while the Bank of Japan accelerates the pace of interest rate hikes.
Asian Equities Rise Amid More Signs of Cooling U.S. Inflation
The Nikkei Index may rise as concerns over potential Federal Reserve rate hikes ease.
Gelong Hui, August 14 – Japanese stocks may rise as concerns over potential Federal Reserve rate hikes eased following the release of U.S. wholesale price data on Thursday. Nikkei index futures on the Singapore Exchange rose 1.4% to 69,310 points. The U.S. dollar was quoted at 159.47 yen, compared with 159.39 yen at the close of the Tokyo stock market on Thursday. Investors are monitoring any developments in the Iran conflict and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Index rose 1.2% to 68,308.59 points on Thursday.
Express News | Nomura Raises Year-End Targets for TOPIX and Nikkei 225, Citing Further Corporate Earnings Growth
Has nearly $100 billion in intervention failed to stop the yen from plunging toward 160? The yen has given back nearly half of its rebound as the impact of coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention fades.
The yen weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar, approaching a key level that could fuel market speculation about renewed intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.
Who Takes Over After Coordinated Intervention: Timing of Bank of Japan Rate Hike in Market Focus
The impact of yen intervention is rapidly fading—after rebounding from a 40-year low of 164 to 155, it is once again approaching the 160 mark. The core issue has shifted from 'whether to intervene' to 'when to raise rates': the exclusion of the European Central Bank from the coordination mechanism has significantly undermined the credibility of joint intervention; market consensus is increasingly clear that without accompanying rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, any support for the yen will be short-lived. September or December? This debate over the timing of a rate hike is now shaping the fate of global carry trades.
Oil Rises Amid Growing Doubts That Strait of Hormuz Can Reopen Soon -- Update
Asia Stocks Gain, Oil up Amid Gulf Confusion
Nikkei May Rise After Weak U.S. Jobs Data -- Market Talk
The market is likely to experience mixed trading, with selective stock picking expected to dominate following the conclusion of the earnings season.
Market Outlook for August 10–14: The Nikkei Average is expected to see a mixed trend. With the round of corporate earnings announcements drawing to a close, the market is highly likely to be driven by selective buying based on a careful assessment of earnings results. Amid an expected decline in market participation due to the Obon holiday, trading in news-driven stocks by individual investors may also become more active. Meanwhile, caution is warranted regarding rising interest rate hike expectations driven by upside surprises in inflation indicators such as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), as well as any further appreciation of the yen in the foreign exchange market.