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Hwabao WP S&P Access (159220) News
Bessent: Oil prices to fall to $40 after Iran conflict ends, with bond yields declining accordingly
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts that the global oil market will face a severe oversupply once the conflict in Iran ends, potentially driving oil prices down to $40–$50 per barrel and leading to a concurrent decline in bond yields and inflation. He noted that the correlation between current oil prices and interest rates has reached a record high.
Nearly 20 million credit cards were canceled in the first half of the year; Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank continued to expand against the trend. Can AI computing power cards usher in a new golden age?
1. While the outstanding credit card balances at most banks have declined significantly, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank bucked the trend in the first half of the year, recording a slight increase in their credit card portfolios. 2. Although the era of aggressive market expansion for credit cards has passed, banks continue to seek ways to unlock the intrinsic value of credit cards through strategies such as deploying AI-enabled credit card services.
Express News | Trump: Ready to strike Iran again; we have full control of the strait
U.S. President Trump met with executives from the U.S. tourism industry at the White House on Wednesday local time, during which he again addressed the issue of Iran. Trump stated, "The Iranian regime is collapsing. A new round of strikes against Iran will not take long to prepare for, and we are ready to launch another strike against Iran in the future. We have full control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which millions of barrels of oil are exported daily. I hope domestic retail gasoline prices will decline."
Fee reforms bottom out and rebound after three years; total fees for public mutual funds in the first half exceed RMB 120 billion, with two key uncertainties remaining.
① In the first half of the year, the total amount of the four major fees for public fund management—management fees, trading commissions, custody fees, and sales service fees—reached RMB 120.594 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%; ② The expansion in scale was the primary driver behind the growth in total fees; ③ Since the implementation of fee reforms, trading commissions have bottomed out and rebounded after nearly halving, while management and custody fees have experienced a "V-shaped" reversal. Sales service fees have continued to rise, making them the only category that has not declined.
Listed banks are collectively stepping up write-offs, with ICBC’s one-time clearance of over RMB 80 billion in non-performing assets sparking widespread discussion. Why such a significant move?
① Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was not the only institution to intensify its write-off efforts in the first half of this year; other banks, including China Construction Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ping An Bank, and Bank of Jiangsu, also significantly increased their write-offs. ② There are multiple reasons for banks to accelerate the write-off of non-performing loans (NPLs): on one hand, regulatory authorities have encouraged such actions; on the other hand, there is pressure to clear out bad debts. ③ Such large-scale write-offs are generally one-time measures and are not expected to occur frequently.
Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank of China followed suit, marking the first time that client data for private banking divisions across the "Big Six" state-owned banks has collectively disappeared from public disclosures, while small and mediu
① By the end of August 2025, ICBC took the lead in ceasing the disclosure of its private banking client numbers. In March this year, three other major state-owned banks—Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank—successively followed suit. In this interim report, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank of China also stopped releasing private banking client data. ② Most joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks continue to highlight their private banking performance in their interim reports and have disclosed relevant data.
Bessent: The Strait of Hormuz could be "bypassed" within two years, becoming a "worthless waterway"
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent predicted that "in two years, the Strait of Hormuz will become a worthless body of water, with crude oil transportation shifted to overland pipelines." However, analysts pointed out that this forecast underestimates the time and cost required for such a rerouting. Currently, Brent crude oil prices have risen from $72 per barrel before the conflict to $94, while the average price of gasoline in the United States has also surged significantly.
Trump warned that Iran would face more severe strikes if it retaliates; Iran vowed a large-scale counterattack. Following an attack on Iran's key energy hub port, oil prices rose sharply.
Trump stated that the U.S. military is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran's alleged attempts to lay mines in the strait and attack U.S. bases in Jordan. He warned that any Iranian counterattack would face "more intense and higher-intensity" strikes, adding that the U.S. is planning a "final blow" that would leave Iran with "little remaining." According to Iranian media, Iran has launched missiles and drones at enemy positions, and the key energy hub of Assaluyeh Port was attacked by U.S. forces. U.S. crude oil prices rose above $90 per barrel for the first time since late July. Markets now estimate a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
When will the new regulations on personal housing loans take effect? Branches of several major state-owned banks report that no implementation guidelines are currently in place, while some banks indicate that details could be finalized within a week.
① Reporters visited multiple offline branches of major state-owned banks today and learned that there are currently no implementable detailed rules at the branch level, including for mortgage contracts and risk disclosures, as no notifications have been issued by the head offices. ② Most banks stated that their head offices are currently organizing consultations among personnel from relevant credit and asset-liability departments to finalize specific detailed rules. ③ Bank insiders indicated that these rules are expected to be finalized and publicly released within approximately one week.
Thirty percent of bank stocks hit year-to-date highs! The market capitalization of ICBC, known as the "Universe Bank," approaches RMB 3 trillion, with other new-high stocks also clustering in these sectors.
① Today, the banking sector remained active, with shares of ICBC, Bank of China, and China CITIC Bank hitting record highs during trading. ② Seventy-six stocks reached their year-to-date highs today, with bank stocks accounting for the largest share at 20.8%. The pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, as well as machinery and equipment sectors, also saw a significant number of stocks on the list. ③ By subsector, the stocks hitting year-to-date highs were mainly concentrated in city commercial banks, large state-owned banks, and coal mining.
The three major A-share indices fell collectively at the open. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing sectors rallied again, while computing hardware and chip semiconductor stocks declined across the board. The Hang Seng Index dropped 1%
China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and CITIC Bank all hit record highs for their A-share and H-share prices in early trading. The securities sector saw unusual activity and a rally, with Hualin Securities hitting the daily price limit, while Guoyuan Securities, Xiangcai Shares, GF Securities, and East Money followed suit with gains.
Has the trend of early mortgage repayments yet to reverse? The six major state-owned banks saw their outstanding personal housing loan balances drop by RMB 508.6 billion in the first half of the year, approaching the full-year decline recorded last year.
1. As of the end of June this year, the outstanding balance of domestic personal housing loans held by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), Bank of China (BOC), China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of Communications (BoCom), and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) stood at approximately RMB 23.97 trillion, a decrease of about RMB 508.6 billion from the end of last year. 2. In the past two years, there has been a noticeable increase in residents' early repayment of mortgages compared to previous periods. This trend has persisted in the first half of this year. 3. Currently, the implementation progress regarding the extension of mortgage terms to 40 years varies across different banks.
CICC: Joint Analysis – What Is the Impact of New Policies on Real Estate Sales and Financing?
We believe that the current housing system reform will have profound implications across five dimensions. First, the reform redefines the cash flow management model for real estate enterprises in the new era, with changes primarily reflected in internal rate of return (IRR) levels. Second, it drives systemic shifts in the competitive landscape of the land market; while total volume may experience short-term fluctuations, medium- to long-term trends will still depend on housing price movements. Third, the reform may help accelerate improvements in the supply-demand balance of the housing market, although potential disruptions arising from existing inventory of new homes and the deposit mechanism for completed properties must be considered. Fourth, under a system of sales based on completed properties, cyclical fluctuations may introduce new impacts, such as financial risks during downturns and the slope of growth during upturns, necessitating corresponding policy reserves to hedge against these effects. Fifth,
Express News | U.S. Officials: Trump May Approve Resumption of Strikes Against Iran
According to Axios, three U.S. officials revealed that Trump and his senior aides have been considering launching limited strikes in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent Iran from rebuilding its radar and missile capabilities for attacking vessels. The plan may be approved following exchanges of fire between the two sides over the weekend. Reportedly, the plan was formulated by U.S. Central Command over the past week and has received support from Defense Secretary Hegseth, but it had not yet secured Trump’s approval prior to this weekend’s clashes with Iran. However, he may approve the plan after the latest escalation. One U.S. official stated that the rationale behind the plan is to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks on oil tankers, U.S. Navy warships, and Air Force aircraft. U.S. officials indicated that Central Command is concerned about Iran’s attempts to rebuild its radar, air defense, and anti-ship missile capabilities in the strait to target vessels more precisely.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate further: Super tanker suspected of hitting a mine, Trump threatens "severe strike"
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again in the Strait of Hormuz, with a supertanker reportedly catching fire after a suspected mine attack, amid mutual strikes by U.S. forces and Iran. Trump stated that the U.S. would retaliate against Iranian attacks on its base in Jordan, continuing to hint at potential "retribution" against Kharg Island. Brent crude briefly surpassed $91 per barrel, while diesel crack spreads approached $100, as market concerns over energy supply disruptions surged sharply. Key focus moving forward will be on the escalation of the conflict and actual crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
China’s “Big Three” Oil Majors Report H1 2026 Results: Combined Net Profit Exceeds RMB 210 Billion
PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec reported year-on-year net profit growth of 22%, 23.4%, and 19.3%, respectively, for the first half of 2026, and all announced interim dividend plans to reward shareholders.
Swift implementation! China Construction Bank has opened applications for extending existing personal mortgage loans. The extension period cannot exceed half of the original loan term, with a total combined term not exceeding 40 years.
① China Construction Bank has clarified that it has implemented policies regarding the extension of existing personal mortgage loans, while other banks are still in the process of further implementation; ② However, specific procedures for applying for extensions remain unclear within the industry. Customer service representatives from banks that have implemented the policy stated that customers need to negotiate directly with their loan-handling branches; ③ Industry experts believe that extending mortgage terms does not necessarily mean that banks are restarting a model of large-scale expansion.
Interim Results of China’s Six Major Banks Released: Two Banks Report Revenue Growth Exceeding 10%, Net Interest Margins Stabilize and Recover, Significant Divergence in Non-Interest Income
① In the first half of 2026, all six state-owned major banks recorded positive revenue growth. Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank achieved revenue growth rates exceeding 10%, while Bank of China led in net profit growth. ② The net interest margins of the six major banks have stabilized. China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications saw a 3 basis point increase compared to their 2025 annual reports, driven primarily by a decline in funding costs. ③ Net fee and commission income among the six major banks showed significant divergence. Postal Savings Bank of China reported a 12.20% year-on-year increase, with wealth management emerging as a key breakthrough area for its retail banking business.
Trump: U.S. Secures "Majority Control" Over Venezuela's Oil Reserves Exceeding 65 Billion Barrels
① On Friday (U.S. Eastern Time), Trump stated that the United States had reached an oil agreement with Venezuela, securing majority control over the country's proven oil reserves exceeding 65 billion barrels; ② He claimed that this agreement would more than double U.S. oil reserves, helping to lower gasoline prices and strengthen U.S.-Venezuela relations.
China Construction Bank Executive: Confident in Maintaining Industry-Leading Net Interest Margin; Will Systematically Promote the Integration of AI Technology with Business Operations and Management
① In response to the objective environment characterized by sluggish growth in market interest rates and narrowing credit spreads, China Construction Bank (CCB) has continued to strengthen its bond investment operations, proactively adapting to changes in the structure of social financing and evolving customer demands. ② CCB has designated artificial intelligence as a strategic choice for driving high-quality development and is systematically promoting the deep integration of AI technologies with its business management and operations.