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Benzinga00:47

How can we monitor the AI bubble?

Global AI-related trades have recently experienced significant volatility, primarily due to crowded positioning and the approaching Q2 earnings season, with markets awaiting new catalysts. CICC’s four-dimensional bubble monitoring framework indicates that AI demand—measured by usage volume and paid-user ratio—continues to grow, but high costs are undermining revenue realization, intensifying cash flow pressures on cloud providers and increasing their reliance on external financing. The industry is currently transitioning from the first to the second phase of funding and has not yet exhibited signs of a full-scale bubble. In the near term, AI-related trades will likely undergo consolidation and differentiation, with focus shifting toward assets facing compute-capacity bottlenecks (e.g., U.S.-based AI data centers and power infrastructure) and domestic compute-capacity supply chains.

CICC Insight00:14

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