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How does Wall Street view the January CPI? Inflation concerns have temporarily eased, with expectations now for the Fed to cut interest rates '2.5 times' within the year.
As companies often raise prices at the beginning of the year, the CPI tends to rise in January. However, the growth rate of core CPI in January this year hit a near five-year low. Despite continued increases in housing prices and signs of tariff impacts on consumer goods such as clothing and computers, prices in politically sensitive categories like gasoline, beef, and eggs fell. Disinflationary pressures are expected to dominate in the coming months. Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve's path to 'normalization' through interest rate cuts depends on whether employment continues to improve. They still anticipate two rate cuts this year, with the first in June. Traders expect the CPI to peak by mid-year before retreating, consistent with expectations of the first rate cut in June or July.
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A five-year low! US core CPI annual rate came in below expectations, with the probability of a rate cut by June now rising to 80%.
The latest CPI report shows a significant easing of inflationary pressures, with the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds falling below 3.40% as a result. A plunge in energy prices and a cooling of housing inflation have led markets to bet that the probability of an interest rate cut before June exceeds 80%.
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