CI INVESTMENTS INC GOLD+ GIANTS COVERED CALL ETF (CGXF.U)
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Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/10/26?
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in Federal Reserve policy": a September rate hike would lead to a slight decline, while no hike would trigger a significant surge.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.
U.S. equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2002; JPMorgan warns that the impact of rising interest rates will be more severe than in the past two decades
The risk buffer for U.S. equities is running critically low. JPMorgan warns that the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to 2.1%, its lowest level since 2002 and more than 100 basis points below the historical average. This era of low premiums conceals three major risks: a systemic increase in the stock market’s sensitivity to interest rate shocks, rebalancing pressures as global investors’ equity overweight reaches a two-decade high, and the strengthening positive correlation between stocks and bonds, which continues to undermine risk parity strategies. Should real interest rates rise further, this quiet valuation repricing could manifest violently.
PPI data rattles Wall Street! Probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 70%
The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that rising energy prices last month have once again exerted inflationary pressure, which could increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.
HSBC: Global commodities enter "super bull market" amid confluence of Iran war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and El Niño
HSBC believes that the market has entered a phase of "super squeeze," with commodity prices likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
快讯 | 美国8月PPI同比增长5.4%超预期，美联储加息预期骤升
US August PPI YoY +5.4% Vs +5.3% Forecast, Prior +4.7%
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Two major inflation reports released over the next two days will set the tone.
① The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 15–16, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding the central bank's actions. ② Over the next two days, two critical inflation data releases will set the tone for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. ③ The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should provide clearer insights into whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating or moderating.
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in the Federal Reserve": a slight decline if rates are hiked in September, but a sharp rise if they are held steady.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.
How Did Bessent’s Market Rescue ‘Trump Card’ Turn Into a ‘Bad Hand’ That Spooked Investors?
① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had pledged to take decisive action to curb U.S. Treasury yields, but his measures have thus far proven insufficient; ② On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would purchase up to $6 billion in long-term Treasury securities in the following day’s repurchase operations. This figure disappointed many investors who had anticipated a larger scale of intervention, while also pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
The size of U.S. long-term Treasury bond repurchases may reach up to $6 billion, falling short of market expectations.
The U.S. Treasury has tripled the cap on its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion, marking the latest effort by Treasury Secretary Bessent to curb rising long-term borrowing costs. However, the market reaction proved counterproductive, indicating that investors had anticipated a larger-scale operation.
Why Are Gold and Silver Up Today, 9/9/26?
Express News | The U.S. Treasury Department announced the scale of its Treasury bond repurchase: up to $6 billion.
The U.S. Treasury will repurchase up to $6 billion in long-term bonds on Thursday. Earlier, the Treasury announced that, by November 4, the size of each individual long-term bond buyback would be at least doubled to $4 billion.
World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in inflows in August, marking the second-largest monthly inflow on record.
More updates to follow.
Expectations of a rate hike have never missed the 40% threshold; the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike may emerge as the “least bad option”.
The surge in non-farm payroll data has pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 60%, leaving Governor Warsh in a dilemma between "disappointing the market" and "disappointing Trump." Shenwan Hongyuan warns that since 2015, expectations of a rate hike exceeding 40% have never failed to materialize, and heightened market expectations for a rate hike are unlikely to subside significantly following the release of CPI data. If the Fed makes an exception this time, the term premium could suffer a backlash. However, if the rate hike proceeds without a substantial upward revision to the future path, the impact may be much milder than market expectations suggest.
Is the gold bull market set to make a comeback? Goldman Sachs discusses "entry timing": $4,000 before the Fed's September meeting!
① Anthony Kim, Global Head of Metals Trading at Goldman Sachs, stated that gold's underperformance since February represents merely a pause rather than the end of the bull market, with prices expected to reach new highs in the medium term; ② Goldman Sachs projects gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with $4,000 serving as key support, and recommends establishing long positions near this level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting.
Express News | “I am the house now; if you want to bet against me, go ahead,” Bessent warned markets not to short the yen against him.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has challenged traders attempting to short the yen, stating that he effectively possesses "insider information" when assessing market conditions. Bessent remarked, "Whenever someone says, 'Oh, the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk by doing this,' I think that is precisely my dream, because I hold asymmetric information." A former hedge fund executive, Bessent recalled several instances of his market interventions, including the joint purchase of yen with the Japanese government on July 31. At that time, the yen strengthened significantly, but gradually gave back those gains over the following trading sessions, partly because traders pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's foreign exchange intervention funds are limited. Bessent stated, "I am now the house, so when we intervene in the yen market, I have a fairly good sense of what actions the Japanese government, the Bank of Japan, and Japanese policymakers will take. And if you wish, you are welcome to bet against me."
Express News | Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island.
International gold and silver prices declined in the short term, with spot gold briefly falling below $4,360; Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island.
Why Is Gold Down Today, 9/8/26?
Citi Issues Major Warning: Wu's Shadow Interest Rate Approaches Historical Peak, Sharply Elevating Risk of September Rate Hike
The newly introduced "Wu Shadow Rate" has surged to historically high levels, approaching the thresholds observed at the onset of previous rate-hiking cycles. This indicates that the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is rising rapidly, while the upcoming August CPI data will serve as the critical determinant for whether a hike proceeds.
Goldman Sachs Research Analysis: Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls dampen rate cut expectations, while gold rallies against the backdrop of rising yields
Goldman Sachs attributes the rise in bond yields to strong nominal growth, fiscal concerns, and the crowding-out effect of AI-related debt issuance.