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What is the actual volume of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz? Data from the U.S. Department of Energy diverges from market tracking figures by a factor of two.
The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that daily oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reach 9 million barrels, whereas data from third-party vessel tracking firms such as Kpler indicate only about 4 million barrels, representing a nearly twofold discrepancy. The core of the controversy lies in the fact that numerous oil tankers disable their transponders to evade attacks, creating "shadow transits" and resulting in data blind spots. If tracking data were more accurate, the shortage risks facing the oil market would far exceed expectations.
The Strait of Hormuz stalemate persists, yet oil prices remain stagnant as market risks quietly shift
Markets are gradually adjusting to the reality of constrained traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. However, even as cooling demand keeps crude oil prices in check, shortages of refined products will drive up end-user fuel costs. These pressures will transmit outward through logistics and transportation supply chains, continuing to weigh on the real economy.
Divergent narratives on strait control: Trump vows to "seize" the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran claims to have reached an agreement with Oman on passage arrangements
Iran announced that it has reached an agreement with Oman on a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Foreign Minister drew a clear line, stating that this is distinct from the reopening of the strait, which depends on whether the United States can fulfill its conditions. Just one day earlier, Trump had threatened to "soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. territory," prompting Iran to issue a stern rebuttal, describing such remarks as "entirely stemming from his personal delusions." Experts commented that the current dynamic between the U.S. and Iran reflects a situation where "both sides appear to be taking the lead, yet neither can achieve exclusive dominance."