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Goldman Sachs Trading Desk: Momentum trading may take several more weeks to bottom out; the AI capex narrative is faltering.
Goldman Sachs noted in its report that AI models are achieving high performance with less computational power than expected, challenging the prevailing market narrative that sustained increases in capital expenditure are necessary to win. Momentum-driven trading adjustments have not yet concluded, but U.S. equities show no signs of systemic risk, with capital rotating across sectors. The efficiency of these models has raised questions about the investment logic on the training side, though demand on the inference side remains robust. The upcoming earnings season will serve as a critical window to test the underlying assumptions of AI-related capital spending.
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① AI-related stocks such as the 'Big Five in Storage' rebounded collectively in pre-market trading; ② Alibaba disclosed that its latest model's performance ranks just behind Fable 5; ③ Yemen's Houthi forces announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia; ④ Elon Musk responded to rumors of a massive SpaceX compute capacity order.