A 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week is all but certain, with the real uncertainty shifting to "how quickly rates will rise thereafter."
According to informed sources, the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates next week, with a 25-basis-point hike best aligning with current assessments. As oil prices surge back above $100 per barrel, market focus has shifted from “whether rates will be raised” to whether Kazuo Ueda will open the door to accelerated tightening in subsequent meetings. However, he may continue to leave the terminal rate unspecified.
Asian Markets Fall as U.S.–Iran Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Treasury Yields Weigh on Sentiment
Risk aversion has taken hold amid concerns over crude oil market conditions and rising interest rates.
The Nikkei 225 posted a sharp decline, closing at 64,011.34 yen, down 1,259.61 yen, on an estimated trading volume of 2.37 billion shares. Amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a surge in
SBI Securities (full-day trading) reported net selling of Murata Manufacturing and net buying of Kioxia Holdings.
For saleCode Stock Name Trading Value(285A)Kioxia HD304,338,516,170(9984)SoftBank Group69,252,478,010(6976)Taiyo Yuden61,162,514,107(6857)Advantest45,562,414,180(1570)
SBI Securities (Pre-market): Net selling of Furukawa Electric; Net buying of Kioxia HD
Sell Code Stock Name Trading Value (285A) Kioxia HD 153,605,523,570 (9984) SoftBank Group 36,879,168,740 (6976) Taiyo Yuden 27,988,309,044 (6857) Advantest 21,496,252,480 (1570) NEXT FUNDS Nikkei 225 Leveraged ETF 18,789,285,190 (5803
Sakura KCS: A potential double-bagger candidate with a dividend yield exceeding 4% and a price-to-book ratio of 0.76x, poised for its sixth consecutive year of dividend increases.
Sakura KCS <4761> is the comprehensive information services company of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group <8316> (hereinafter referred to as "SMBC Group"). Established in Kobe in 1969 as a computing center, the company has expanded its business scope to include system construction and data center services. With headquarters in Kobe and Tokyo, it provides system development and operation, security measures, Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), and other services to clients in the financial, public, and private sectors. The company benefits from a stable management foundation as a member of the SMBC Group.
With markets awaiting next week's financial events, the scope for an autonomous rebound is limited.
[Equity Opening Comment] On the 11th, selling is likely to lead the Japanese stock market amid caution over the situation in the Middle East. Even after the selling subsides, the market is expected to remain reluctant to buy on dips as investors await next week's financial events. In the U.S. market on the 10th, the NY Dow fell by $316 and Nasdaq dropped by 171 points. Crude oil futures rose above $1 per barrel amid growing concerns over escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, following reports that Iran had resumed ballistic missile production at underground facilities.
List of Reversal Stocks (Part 1) [Parabolic Signal Reversal Stocks List]
○ List of Stocks with Buy Recommendations Market Code Stock Name Closing Price SAR TSE Prime <2737> Tomen Deva 35,750 31,900 <2874> Yokorei 2,277 2,130 <3191> Joyful Honda 2,252 2,171 <4092> Nippon Kayaku 5,600 5,090 <4215> Takiron CI 868 868 <5016> JX Metals 3,812 3,503 <5032> ANYCOLOR 3,240 2,855
Although selling pressure initially dominated amid rising Middle East risks, the market rebounded on dip-buying.
The Nikkei 225 posted a modest rebound for the first time in three days, closing up 128.17 yen at 65,270.95 (with an estimated trading volume of 2.16 billion shares). The decline was weighed down by
Albis leads gains [TSE Prime: Top 10 stocks by trading volume, gain rate, and loss rate]
Top 10 Stocks by Trading Volume: Code, Ticker, Current Price, Change from Previous Day, Trading Volume 19432 NTT 175.2 3 21,316,290,021,360 Nikkei Bear 2x ETF 69.1 -0.2 17,745,666,039,434 SoftBank 243.2 4 9,096,030,049,984 SoftBank Group 681 0 0 83,731,600,587,290 Sony FH 1,590.2 4 8,742,200,695,010 Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings 546.3 -28.8 42,620,800,783,060 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 366 2 61,363,271,008
Sakata Seed, Yamazaki Baking, etc. (Additional) Rating
Upgrades - Bullish Code Stock Name | Securities Firm | Previous | Revised ------------------------------------------------------------ <6273> SMC | SMBC Nikko | "2" | "1" <7296> FCC | MS/UFMG | "Underweight" | "Equal-weight" Downgrades - Bearish Code Stock Name | Securities Firm | Previous | Revised -------------------------------------------
Sell orders targeting a pullback are likely to emerge.
[Equity Market Opening Comment] Japanese stocks are likely to face initial selling pressure on the 10th amid heightened caution over Middle East tensions, with subsequent market conditions expected to remain unfavorable for dip-buying strategies. In the U.S. market on the 9th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by $405, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 168 points. Sentiment was dampened by crude oil futures rising to the $96 per barrel range in response to escalating military confrontations between the U.S. and Iran. Additionally, a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates due to inflation concerns further cooled market sentiment. Chicago Nikkei
Attention U.S. Bond Investors: Japan's Yield Spike Could Draw Capital Home
The session closed with a gradual pullback in activity.
The Nikkei Stock Average continued its slight decline, closing at 65,142.78 yen, down 126.55 yen (estimated trading volume: 2.3 billion shares). Taking cues from the previous day's decline in major U.S. indices such as the Dow Inc, the market opened with selling pressure, and the Nikkei briefly dipped to 65,076.19 yen shortly after the start of trading. However, buying interest emerged ahead of the psychological milestone of 65,000 yen as investors sought a technical rebound, supported by the resilience of some U.S. semiconductor-related stocks, which helped lift morning-lagged semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) related shares.
Asian Markets Mixed; Nikkei and Kospi Rise, China Steady, and India Falls
“I am now the house; come and bet against me if you dare.” Bessent warned the market not to challenge him by shorting the yen.
Bessent stated, “When we intervene in the yen market, I have a thorough understanding of what the Japanese authorities, the Bank of Japan, and Japanese policymakers will do.” Coupled with the fundamental support from the Bank of Japan’s expected 25-basis-point rate hike this month, short sellers will face a dual onslaught from both policy intervention and a shift in interest rates. Analysts believe that Bessent’s tough rhetoric serves not only as psychological pressure but also hints that further actions are poised to follow.
Amada, Fujitsu, and others [List of stock-related news from newspapers]
*Amada <6113> to increase production of semiconductor drilling machines at its Fujinomiya plant, citing synergies with Via Mechanics (Nikkan Kogyo, p.1)-○*Panasonic HD <6752>, Panasonic EW develops portable fuel cells, enhancing immediate delivery and installability (Nikkan Kogyo, p.1)-○*Kanadevia <7004> to increase production of electronic substrates for semiconductor equipment at its Maizuru plant (Nikkan Kogyo, p.3)-○*Toyota Boshoku <3116> to build new factory in India, starting car seat production in the first half of FY2029 (Nikkan Kogyo, p.3)-○*Japan Engine <6016> succeeds in land-based testing of hydrogen engine
There are no investment trust subscriptions scheduled for today [Investment Trust Subscription Schedule].
Set Date Fund Name Management Company Investment Target Region Investment Target Assets--------------------------------------------------------------------------9/10 SMBC Prime Japanese Short-Term
Japanese media: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with the pace of hikes potentially accelerating to "once per quarter."
Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are intensifying, with Japanese media reporting that the central bank may raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% at next week's meeting. The pace of tightening could also accelerate from once every six months to once per quarter. Yen depreciation and rising oil prices have pushed up inflation, serving as key drivers for an accelerated policy shift, although internal divisions remain within the central bank regarding the path of rate hikes.
Express News | According to Kyodo News, the Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates to 1.25% at its meeting on September 17–18.