Daily Roundup of Investment Bank and Institutional Views (2026-09-09)
Mini Program: Daily Summary of Investment Bank/Institutional Views – International 1. Goldman Sachs: Refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz at only 35% of pre-conflict levels, while crude oil stands at 70% Goldman Sachs executives stated on Tuesday that refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at 35% of pre-war levels, with crude oil flows at 70%. Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, noted that supply shocks in the Middle East have a greater impact on refined products than on crude oil, particularly for heavier products such as diesel, though no specific volumes were provided. Vessel tracking data from Kpler shows that last year, refined products shipped from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz—including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and naphtha—amounted to approximately
Markets have shown "non-stick" resilience for five years! Investment banks warn: The "Teflon market" has its limits.
In recent years, global markets have been battered by a succession of negative shocks, yet risk assets have remained remarkably resilient, seemingly impervious to bad news. However, both HSBC and Deutsche Bank now warn that this "Teflon market" phenomenon is not without its limits.
Natural gas prices approach pressure zone as Europe’s winter trading theme emerges!
The current European natural gas market dynamics are forming a clear transmission chain. Rising gas prices are driving up inflation, which in turn pushes bond yields higher; banks and energy stocks benefit, while industrial stocks face pressure. Should gas prices breach €100 per megawatt-hour, this divergence could accelerate further.
Daily Roundup of Investment Bank and Institutional Views (2026-09-04)
Mini Program: Daily Summary of Investment Bank and Institutional Views – International 1. HSBC Raises U.S. Treasury Yield Forecasts, Anticipating a More Hawkish Policy Path HSBC has raised its yield forecasts for U.S. Treasuries across the curve. In a report, Dilraj Narula, U.S. rates strategist at HSBC, stated that this adjustment reflects the bank’s view that future monetary policy is likely to follow a more hawkish trajectory, while the structural floor for long-term U.S. Treasury yields will also be higher. HSBC currently projects the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach 4.20% by the end of 2026, up from the previous forecast of 3.85%; it expects the yield to stand at 3.95% by the end of 2027, revised up from the prior estimate of 3.50%.
Is the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis set to repeat? HSBC: Signals are strikingly similar, but this time the "landmine" is buried elsewhere
U.S. Treasury yields, the yen, and the tech rally are echoing familiar pre-1997 signals, but Asia’s underlying structure has changed. HSBC’s Chief Economist argues that the real “risk” today lies not in the financial system, but in U.S. AI demand.
CITIC Research: Reassessing the Value of Large Banks from a Global Perspective
Since 2020, global Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have demonstrated robust performance in capital markets. A breakdown reveals that enhanced profitability and increased share buybacks and dividends have been the primary drivers of the strong returns delivered by G-SIBs over the past decade. The return drivers for G-SIBs vary across regions: U.S. banks rely on profits and buybacks; European banks on dividends and cyclical reversal; Japanese banks on revaluation driven by interest rate normalization; while Chinese banks exhibit prominent dividend characteristics. Looking ahead, large domestic banks in China are entering a stage of high-quality development, with continuous optimization of their balance sheet expansion, profitability, capital management, and shareholder return models, offering substantial investment value.
Standard Chartered Charges Ahead, HSBC Takes a Back Seat? Diverging Stances and Developmental Challenges for HKD Stablecoins
(Source: Digital Fiat Currency Research Society) Mobile Payment News reports: Hong Kong’s regulatory framework for stablecoins has recently reached a critical juncture, transitioning from institutional development to substantive operational implementation. However, the diverging attitudes of the first two holders of HKD stablecoin licenses have become a focal point for the industry. The first regulated stablecoin is set to launch, with the Standard Chartered-affiliated consortium actively preparing for an August 12, 2026 rollout. Anchor Point Fintech, established by $Standard Chartered Group (02888.HK)$ in collaboration with $HKT-SS (06823.HK)$ and Animoca Brands...
IMF Deputy Managing Director: What Stablecoins Mean for Emerging Markets
Author: Dan Katz, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Compiled by: Qin Jin The following is the full text of the speech delivered by Dan Katz, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at the University of Cape Town in South Africa on August 7. Good morning. Thank you, Vice-Chancellor, for your kind introduction. I am delighted to be here at the University of Cape Town. While this may be the oldest institution of higher learning in the region, it is also one of the most forward-looking and future-oriented universities, thanks to your Financial Innovation Hub. As new technologies reshape
What will happen to Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem following the launch of its first compliant HKD stablecoin?
The Hong Kong stablecoin market has reached a significant milestone. On August 12, Anchorpoint Financial launched the first phase of its Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, HKD At Par (hereinafter referred to as "HKDAP"), initially making it available to institutional distributors and professional investors. This is neither a retail-oriented "mass-market stablecoin" nor another crypto-asset project reliant on liquidity and exchange trading volumes for growth. Rather, it is the first compliant Hong Kong dollar stablecoin product to enter operational status following the implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance. For Hong Kong, the significance of HKDAP lies in its attempt to bridge the digital gap.
Hong Kong's first compliant stablecoin, HKDAP, has been officially launched, with the initial batch of institutional distributors and professional investors granted access.
Source: Caiwen. As more ecosystem partners gradually join, exploration of retail-level applications remains targeted for an initial launch by the end of 2026, subject to market conditions. On August 12, the Hong Kong stablecoin market witnessed a historic moment. Anchorpoint Financial, jointly established by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Animoca Group, and HKT, officially launched "HKDAP" (HKD At Par), a regulated stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar. This marks the first project to materialize under Hong Kong’s licensing regime for compliant stablecoin issuers. On the same day, Anchorpoint Financial announced the commencement of its initial phase of promotion.
Shareholders to Inject Over RMB 10 Billion in Two Rounds Within the Year: The Capital Calculus Behind HSBC Life's Fifth Capital Increase
① Since becoming a wholly foreign-owned life insurer, HSBC Life has launched five rounds of capital increases; ② HSBC Insurance (Asia) is making its second investment this year, planning to inject RMB 472 million into HSBC Life.
Express News | Will the second batch of stablecoin licenses be issued around National Day? Hong Kong Monetary Authority: No comment on market rumors; maintains an open yet cautious stance
August 6 news – Recent market reports suggest that as the first batch of stablecoin issuers advances testing and business preparations, Hong Kong’s stablecoin issuance could accelerate further, with a possibility that licenses for a second batch of stablecoin issuers may be granted around National Day. In response to these market rumors, a spokesperson for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) replied today to a Caixin reporter, stating that the HKMA does not comment on market speculation. However, regarding whether additional stablecoin issuer licenses will be granted and the timing thereof, the HKMA maintains an open yet cautious attitude and currently has no definitive inclination. The spokesperson added that the HKMA’s current priority is to support the two licensed stablecoin issuers in their business preparations and, following their successful issuance of compliant stablecoins, to monitor the implementation of relevant use cases, operational effectiveness, and market responses. Any future decision on granting additional licenses will require comprehensive consideration of multiple factors, including whether applications meet licensing requirements, market demand for stablecoins, real-world usage scenarios, and international developments and regulatory discussions.
HSBC trims down again! Blackstone acquires its Australian mortgage assets for $25 billion
① HSBC Holdings has signed an agreement with Blackstone to sell its Australian residential and personal loan portfolio, valued at AUD 36 billion (approximately USD 25 billion), with the transaction expected to close in the first half of 2027; ② HSBC stated the sale will result in a non-material loss of less than USD 100 million; ③ The remaining retail banking operations in Australia will be wound down within the next 18 months.
While JPMorgan moves settlement onto the blockchain, your finance department is still holding 'feasibility workshops.'
Authors: Yi Heyi First, let’s correct a misjudgment: this is not “yet another hype cycle,” but rather a migration of cash pipelines. Many executives, upon seeing figures like “USD 27.5 billion” and “30% quarterly growth,” instinctively respond: “The scale is still too small—it’s far from the trillion-dollar mark; let’s wait and see.” While this assessment may be mathematically sound, it is strategically perilous. The crux of RWA tokenization does not lie in how many billions of dollars are currently on-chain, but in which institutions have already migrated core functions—such as settlement, registration, issuance, and custody—onto programmable ledgers. According to RWA.xyz, on-chain RWAs (excluding stablecoins) stood at approximately USD 21 billion at the beginning of 2026.
European Banks Top Investor Bets for Continent: BofA Survey -- Market Talk
1305 GMT - European banks are the largest consensus overweight for European investors, Bank of America's European fund manager survey for July says. A net 49% of surveyed investors say the continent'
Express News | Hong Kong Government: Regulated stablecoins expected to launch from mid- to late this year
On June 27, the Hong Kong government stated in a written reply to the Legislative Council that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) granted stablecoin issuer licenses to two institutions with banking backgrounds in April 2026. According to the existing business plans of these two institutions, regulated stablecoins in Hong Kong are expected to be launched between mid- and late this year. The government noted that the HKMA has already sent letters to unregulated entities operating stablecoin issuance businesses in the market to clarify legal requirements and will continue monitoring these cases; where necessary, cases may be referred to the police or the Department of Justice. The government also indicated that it will submit a bill to the Legislative Council this year to establish a regulatory regime for providers of virtual asset trading, custody, advisory, and management services.
Daily Summary of Investment Bank/Institutional Views (2026-06-17)
Mini Program: Daily Summary of Investment Bank/Institutional Views — International 1. UBS Group: Pushes back Fed rate cut expectations to 2027; expects hawkish signal from this week’s meeting UBS Global Wealth Management has pushed back its expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts to March and June 2027, and no longer anticipates any cuts this year. The firm stated that this adjustment reflects its view that the upcoming Fed meeting will deliver a hawkish message. UBS now forecasts the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June next year, compared with its previous forecast of 25-basis-point cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this week.
“Finance is the new consumption!” Ri Dou Wang Wen’s latest insight: Value investing must overcome eighty-one trials and tribulations—and be pursued with joyous perseverance.
‘Technology is a productive force, but finance drives new consumption.’ ‘The financial industry is a perpetually growing sector.’ ‘Once your understanding is correct, all that remains is persistence—and joyful persistence at that.’ These were the latest insights shared by Wang Wen, Chairman of Ridou Investment, at the 2026 Jin Changjiang Private Fund Development Forum held on June 11. Organized by Securities Times and co-hosted by Changjiang Securities, this year’s forum carried the theme ‘Chasing the Light.’ Sharing the stage with him were Tao Dong of Freshwater Springs and Wu Ge of Changjiang Securities. When it was Wang Wen’s turn to speak, he opened almost bluntly, stating that he ‘would never stand in the spotlight.’ ‘Who says only those standing in the light are...’
Cross-border securities enter an era of comprehensive compliance: how can existing capital be safely withdrawn while avoiding fatal pitfalls?
This regulatory campaign, led by eight government departments, covers all sectors, the entire business chain, and all market participants. Unlicensed overseas entities conducting unauthorized operations within China will be completely shut down, leaving no room for侥幸 (wishful thinking or attempts to circumvent rules). During the two-year transition period, existing investors will only be allowed to sell or transfer out their holdings—not buy or transfer in new assets. For investors, the riskiest choice is not an orderly exit, but rather panic-driven transfers of assets to unlicensed overseas institutions that have not yet been explicitly targeted—thereby voluntarily forfeiting legal protections and stepping into a regulatory void. By addressing root causes, closing backdoors, and opening legitimate channels, cross-border investment in China is entering an era of comprehensive standardization.
Altman changes stance: AI unlikely to trigger 'employment apocalypse'; human relationships serve as an irreplaceable 'moat'
OpenAI CEO Altman stated that AI is unlikely to trigger an "employment apocalypse," with its impact on entry-level white-collar jobs far lower than expected. He emphasized that human interaction constitutes a "moat" difficult for technology to replicate, while cautioning that future effects remain uncertain. Meanwhile, several large corporations are continuing to advance their adoption of AI to replace roles.