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Key Deals This Week: Bending Spoons, Advanced Micro Devices, Visa, Prologis, and More
Earnings Volatility Watch: Applied Materials and 10 Other Stocks Could See Double-Digit Moves This Week
Tokenomics in the U.S. and China: Sources of Profit, Premium Allocation, and Realization Sequence
Profits across the large AI model industry chain are being realized sequentially from upstream to midstream to downstream. The upstream computing infrastructure layer has already captured the full benefits of scarce resource premiums, while the midstream model layer is experiencing price deflation due to open-source competition leveling the playing field. In terms of where value accrues, there is a clear divergence between China and the United States: in the U.S., incremental AI value is being absorbed into existing high-priced software subscription models; in China, due to differences in willingness to pay, the low-cost token-based benefits are spilling directly into the downstream application layer. Going forward, whether downstream players can retain profits will depend on the 'switching costs' they establish within their specific business use cases.
[Chart Analysis: Bull and Bear Stocks] CPO-related stocks lead in gains, with the minor metals sector showing strong performance.
① This week, the three major A-share indices rebounded from losses, with the ChiNext Price Index rising 6.55% for the week; ② CPO-related stocks led gains, among which Weiergao surged 65.41% and Tongyu Communications rose 56.52% for the week; ③ The minor metals sector showed strong performance, and its profitability may improve under strict quota controls.
Microsoft faces an AI compute shortfall—will Musk fill the gap? SemiAnalysis: SpaceX’s新增算力 in 2027 could exceed 10 GW, with ARR potentially reaching USD 300 billion.
After evaluating all pilot sites, SemiAnalysis considers SpaceX's goal of adding over 10 GW of new computing capacity by 2027 to be feasible. Microsoft, facing a substantial demand gap, is expected to sign a 3 GW contract with SpaceX worth approximately $150 billion, making it SpaceX’s largest computing capacity customer. If half of the newly added capacity is allocated to commercial inference, SpaceX’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.
Weekend buzz: “Empty deposits, multiple lights”?
Well-known memory sector bull Jukan has turned cautiously bearish in the short term, citing three reasons: First, following the functional breakdown of South Korea's leveraged ETF market, related investors are facing redemption pressures that could exert additional selling pressure on memory stocks. Second, NVIDIA is adjusting the architecture of its next-generation AI systems, with Rubin Ultra potentially reducing HBM configurations per rack and instead using optical interconnects to link multiple racks. Third, market expectations that memory prices will peak over the next two quarters are strengthening. In contrast, prominent investor "White-Haired Oracle" Serenity argues that the fundamentals of the memory sector remain unchanged, asserting that the market is merely rotating "from one bottleneck to another."