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It is not that the AI bubble is about to burst, but rather a flight from overcrowded trades—Wall Street’s strategic focus is shifting from 'AI compute beta' to 'cash flow alpha.'
Top strategist teams from Wall Street firms such as Citi and Morgan Stanley have fully shifted their strategic focus away from 'AI compute infrastructure beta' toward high-quality, low-momentum, cash-rich cyclical sectors with strong fundamentals and defensive stocks—segments that have significantly underperformed technology stocks in terms of year-to-date gains.
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Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have strengthened expectations of higher crude oil prices, while rising long-term interest rates have bolstered the dollar, which rebounded to 162.55 yen and 1.1431 dollars.
[London Market Overview] On the 16th, the dollar-yen pair traded slightly higher in the London foreign exchange market. After dipping to around ¥162 in the afternoon, the dollar rebounded as crude oil prices and U.S. long-term interest rates showed limited downside, pushing the pair up from ¥162.09 to ¥162.19. The euro-dollar pair was pressured lower by dollar buying, declining from $1.1471 to $1.1464. The euro-yen pair rose from ¥185.85 to ¥185.94 amid continued yen-selling sentiment but subsequently stalled.
U.S. equity markets declined as heightened concerns over inflation resurfaced following intensified attacks against Iran (16th).
U.S. equity markets declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 105.67 points at 52,552.97, while the Nasdaq ended the session lower by 387.28 points at 25,881.95. UnitedHealth Group (UNH), a healthcare company, provided some support to the Dow, but trading was mixed after the opening. Markets turned downward amid escalating concerns over surging crude oil prices as attacks against Iran intensified day after day. Higher interest rates weighed on sentiment, and disappointing earnings from semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) failed to meet market expectations, dragging down the sector.