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快讯 | 美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%符合市场预期 交易员上调美联储加息预期
US Aug. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.4%
August CPI: The Federal Reserve backed into a corner as markets begin to price in the exhaustion of negative catalysts
Source: CICC Strategy. Following the non-farm payrolls data, the August CPI also exceeded expectations. Although only the core month-on-month figure came in above forecasts (0.3% vs. expected 0.2%), core CPI is widely regarded as a key indicator. The higher-than-expected monthly gain kept the year-on-year core rate broadly flat compared to the previous month (2.45% vs. 2.48%). As for headline CPI, its rise was fully anticipated and aligned with market expectations, requiring little further comment. This data is largely consistent with our earlier forecasts.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? The U.S. August CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, marking a pivotal moment for the markets.
① At 20:30 Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August CPI data, which will be the final "inflation puzzle piece" available to the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision next week. ② As widely discussed by market participants recently, this week's inflation report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's actions at next week's monetary policy meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields approach the 5% "psychological barrier"! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as financial markets await tonight's 8:30 PM CPI "final verdict"
A global bond sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes toward the critical 5% level.
The 30-year Mortgage Rate Just Crossed 7% for the First Time in Over a Year
By Aarthi Swaminathan The 30-year mortgage rate jumped 18 basis points in two days The 30-year mortgage rate reached the highest level since May 2025 Mortgage rates crossed 7% on Thursday, making it
Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/10/26?
U.S. equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2002; JPMorgan warns that the impact of rising interest rates will be more severe than in the past two decades
The risk buffer for U.S. equities is running critically low. JPMorgan warns that the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to 2.1%, its lowest level since 2002 and more than 100 basis points below the historical average. This era of low premiums conceals three major risks: a systemic increase in the stock market’s sensitivity to interest rate shocks, rebalancing pressures as global investors’ equity overweight reaches a two-decade high, and the strengthening positive correlation between stocks and bonds, which continues to undermine risk parity strategies. Should real interest rates rise further, this quiet valuation repricing could manifest violently.
PPI data rattles Wall Street! Probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 70%
The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that rising energy prices last month have once again exerted inflationary pressure, which could increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.
HSBC: Global commodities enter "super bull market" amid confluence of Iran war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and El Niño
HSBC believes that the market has entered a phase of "super squeeze," with commodity prices likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
快讯 | 美国8月PPI同比增长5.4%超预期，美联储加息预期骤升
US August PPI YoY +5.4% Vs +5.3% Forecast, Prior +4.7%
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in Federal Reserve policy": a September rate hike would lead to a slight decline, while no hike would trigger a significant surge.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Two major inflation reports released over the next two days will set the tone.
① The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 15–16, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding the central bank's actions. ② Over the next two days, two critical inflation data releases will set the tone for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. ③ The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should provide clearer insights into whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating or moderating.
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in the Federal Reserve": a slight decline if rates are hiked in September, but a sharp rise if they are held steady.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.
How Did Bessent’s Market Rescue ‘Trump Card’ Turn Into a ‘Bad Hand’ That Spooked Investors?
① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had pledged to take decisive action to curb U.S. Treasury yields, but his measures have thus far proven insufficient; ② On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would purchase up to $6 billion in long-term Treasury securities in the following day’s repurchase operations. This figure disappointed many investors who had anticipated a larger scale of intervention, while also pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
The size of U.S. long-term Treasury bond repurchases may reach up to $6 billion, falling short of market expectations.
The U.S. Treasury has tripled the cap on its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion, marking the latest effort by Treasury Secretary Bessent to curb rising long-term borrowing costs. However, the market reaction proved counterproductive, indicating that investors had anticipated a larger-scale operation.
Why Are Gold and Silver Up Today, 9/9/26?
Express News | The U.S. Treasury Department announced the scale of its Treasury bond repurchase: up to $6 billion.
The U.S. Treasury will repurchase up to $6 billion in long-term bonds on Thursday. Earlier, the Treasury announced that, by November 4, the size of each individual long-term bond buyback would be at least doubled to $4 billion.
World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in inflows in August, marking the second-largest monthly inflow on record.
More updates to follow.
Expectations of a rate hike have never missed the 40% threshold; the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike may emerge as the “least bad option”.
The surge in non-farm payroll data has pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 60%, leaving Governor Warsh in a dilemma between "disappointing the market" and "disappointing Trump." Shenwan Hongyuan warns that since 2015, expectations of a rate hike exceeding 40% have never failed to materialize, and heightened market expectations for a rate hike are unlikely to subside significantly following the release of CPI data. If the Fed makes an exception this time, the term premium could suffer a backlash. However, if the rate hike proceeds without a substantial upward revision to the future path, the impact may be much milder than market expectations suggest.
Is the gold bull market set to make a comeback? Goldman Sachs discusses "entry timing": $4,000 before the Fed's September meeting!
① Anthony Kim, Global Head of Metals Trading at Goldman Sachs, stated that gold's underperformance since February represents merely a pause rather than the end of the bull market, with prices expected to reach new highs in the medium term; ② Goldman Sachs projects gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with $4,000 serving as key support, and recommends establishing long positions near this level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting.