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Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/14/26?
A once-in-two-decades event! The three major central banks of the U.S., Europe, and Japan may raise interest rates in unison—what does this mean?
①This is far more than an ordinary "super central-bank week"—while markets are fixated on shifts in interest-rate levels, a macroeconomic drama unseen for two decades is quietly unfolding; ②The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan—the G3 central banks of advanced economies—are, in a rare move, simultaneously embarking on tightening cycles.
Goldman Sachs suddenly reverses stance: Rate hike this week! The Federal Reserve is backed into a corner by the market—not raising rates would be the surprise.
Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast to call for a rate hike this week, citing not a change in the economy but rather the market's 90% pricing-in of a hike, which the Fed may be reluctant to upset. Walsh could use the FOMC's majority view as cover to raise rates seven weeks before the midterm elections without bearing the brunt of Trump's ire on his own.
The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Thursday! What will happen if rates are raised? An analysis by CICC.
Whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates has been the most divisive, volatile, and perplexing issue in the markets over the past month and more.
CICC: Sticky inflation supports rate hikes; watch for hawkish signals
In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis (versus 0.1% the previous month) and 3.4% year-on-year (unchanged from the prior month). Core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month (up from 0.2% in the prior month) and 2.4% year-on-year (down slightly from 2.5% the previous month), marginally above market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation was driven primarily by higher energy prices, telecom rate hikes, and persistent inflationary pressures stemming from artificial intelligence. We believe this CPI report has already met the Federal Reserve's threshold for raising interest rates, and we therefore expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting.
Traders’ Red Lines Shift Online: A 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Above 6% Is the True Threshold for Personal Portfolios
This week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury briefly approached 5%, yet a Bloomberg survey indicates that traders are willing to tolerate yields above 6% in their own portfolios. The underlying rationale is that managing one's own capital carries no accountability for "being fired," resulting in a much higher risk tolerance than that of institutions managing other people's assets. Moreover, compared with the absolute level of Treasury yields, the pace of their rise has a more pronounced impact on the market.
Once the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-hiking cycle, is a sequence of three consecutive hikes a reasonable expectation?
BMO anticipates consecutive follow-up hikes in October and December, with the cumulative impact of three hikes potentially erasing all anticipated rate cuts for 2025. Vanguard Group considers "three
Following the CPI release, investment banks are scrambling to revise their forecasts: the camp expecting no rate hikes this year has capitulated, while hawks are betting on three rate increases by January next year.
TD Securities has adopted the most hawkish stance, shifting from a forecast of unchanged rates for the full year to projecting three rate hikes by January next year. JPMorgan now expects one hike
August CPI: The Federal Reserve backed into a corner as markets begin to price in the exhaustion of negative catalysts
Source: CICC Strategy. Following the non-farm payrolls data, the August CPI also exceeded expectations. Although only the core month-on-month figure came in above forecasts (0.3% vs. expected 0.2%), core CPI is widely regarded as a key indicator. The higher-than-expected monthly gain kept the year-on-year core rate broadly flat compared to the previous month (2.45% vs. 2.48%). As for headline CPI, its rise was fully anticipated and aligned with market expectations, requiring little further comment. This data is largely consistent with our earlier forecasts.
快讯 | 美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%符合市场预期 交易员上调美联储加息预期
US Aug. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.4%
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? The U.S. August CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, marking a pivotal moment for the markets.
① At 20:30 Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August CPI data, which will be the final "inflation puzzle piece" available to the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision next week. ② As widely discussed by market participants recently, this week's inflation report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's actions at next week's monetary policy meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields approach the 5% "psychological barrier"! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as financial markets await tonight's 8:30 PM CPI "final verdict"
A global bond sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes toward the critical 5% level.
Why Are Gold and Silver Down Today, 9/10/26?
U.S. equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2002; JPMorgan warns that the impact of rising interest rates will be more severe than in the past two decades
The risk buffer for U.S. equities is running critically low. JPMorgan warns that the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 has fallen to 2.1%, its lowest level since 2002 and more than 100 basis points
PPI data rattles Wall Street! Probability of a Fed rate hike in September rises to 70%
The latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that rising energy prices last month have once again exerted inflationary pressure, which could increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week.
HSBC: Global commodities enter "super bull market" amid confluence of Iran war, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and El Niño
HSBC believes that the market has entered a phase of "super squeeze," with commodity prices likely to remain elevated for an extended period.
快讯 | 美国8月PPI同比增长5.4%超预期，美联储加息预期骤升
US August PPI YoY +5.4% Vs +5.3% Forecast, Prior +4.7%
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in Federal Reserve policy": a September rate hike would lead to a slight decline, while no hike would trigger a significant surge.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Two major inflation reports released over the next two days will set the tone.
① The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 15–16, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding the central bank's actions. ② Over the next two days, two critical inflation data releases will set the tone for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. ③ The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should provide clearer insights into whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating or moderating.
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in the Federal Reserve": a slight decline if rates are hiked in September, but a sharp rise if they are held steady.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.