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What are the impacts of Trump's tariff hikes on eight European countries? A comprehensive assessment from Goldman Sachs research report.
① Goldman Sachs believes that a 10% tariff would reduce the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of affected European countries by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points through decreased exports; ② The inflationary impact could be very minimal, and under unchanged conditions, the Taylor Rule would suggest a moderate reduction in policy interest rates.
US Treasuries in turmoil! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as Japan's bond yield storm hits the 4% mark.
Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe over the 'acquisition' of Greenland is triggering a chain reaction. This political turmoil has not only heightened market concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook, weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries, but also resonated with the bond market volatility triggered by Japan's domestic tax cut plan.
Will it be another episode of 'maximum pressure followed by a last-minute compromise'? The market 'understands Trump well.'
Although global markets exhibited risk-averse sentiment overnight, the reaction remained relatively restrained. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that Trump's threat to use tariffs as leverage to force the purchase of Greenland is more of a negotiation tactic, consistent with his habitual strategy of 'escalating first, then de-escalating.' It is expected that Trump will reach a compromise at the last moment.
Europe's '10 Trillion Dollar Weapon': Countering Trump with US Treasuries and Stocks Sounds Easier Than It Is
Facing Trump's threats over the sovereignty of Greenland and a new round of tariff wars, Europe holds an extreme 'trump card'—its holdings of over $10 trillion in U.S. assets. The idea of weaponizing capital is sparking heated discussions in the market, but analysts point out that this represents more of a tail risk.
Powell makes a rare appearance at the U.S. Supreme Court hearing and will support Fed Governor Cook on Wednesday.
This case concerns the survival of the Federal Reserve's independence: if the ruling allows the president to remove a governor "for cause," it would break the fourteen-year term protection mechanism and set a precedent for political interference in monetary policy. Powell himself is also facing a subpoena investigation by the Department of Justice. His appearance is a public statement to defend the institution's independence.
Truth of the trade war revealed: 96% of the impact from Trump's tariff measures has fallen on Americans themselves.
A recent study released by a German think tank shows that the costs of the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump on imported goods are almost entirely borne by American importers, domestic customers, and ultimately, American consumers.