Pre-market US stock outlook: The US engages in two-way negotiations in Geneva. Crude oil rose at one point during pre-market trading, while gold prices came under pressure. Concerns over high capital expenditures persist as the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech gi
On Tuesday before the market open, the three major U.S. stock index futures declined. As of now, Dow Jones futures are down 0.26%, Nasdaq futures are down 0.87%, and S&P 500 Index futures are down 0.45%.
Express News | Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran and the US Reach Agreement on Negotiation Guidelines
Express News | Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve: Multiple rate cuts expected if inflation declines
Express News | The February Empire State Manufacturing Index for the U.S. was 7.1, compared to an expected 6.98 and a previous reading of 7.7.
Express News | In the four weeks ending January 31, the average weekly increase in employment in the U.S. private sector was 10,250 people.
The US Dollar Index closed higher for two consecutive days: Expectations of Fed rate cuts are being questioned, and hedge funds are reducing their short positions.
The money market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by approximately 64 basis points before the end of the year. However, some strategists believe that this expectation may be too high given the robust economic growth and potential inflationary pressures.
With the aftershocks of the CPI still lingering, US Treasury yields are approaching the 4% threshold as markets look to more employment data this week to validate the path for interest rate cuts.
The rally in U.S. Treasuries last week continued as trading resumed after the Tuesday holiday.
Dalio's 10,000-word article: The old order is dead, and the world is reverting to the 'law of the jungle.' Trade wars and capital wars will become the norm.
Dalio declared that the world has entered the sixth phase of the 'great cycle': the post-1945 world order has collapsed, and might makes right. Major power conflicts will return to a primitive power struggle, with trade wars, technology wars, and capital wars becoming normalized and potentially escalating into military conflicts.
Risk-off Mode! Morgan Stanley: Markets Begin Buying U.S. Treasuries
Growing concerns over 'overinvestment' in AI and its negative externalities have pressured stocks related to SaaS and private credit. Meanwhile, a significant deterioration in consumer confidence among affluent households in the U.S. with annual incomes above $100,000 signals potential downside risks to the economy.
"New Fed Wire": The U.S. economy is approaching a 'soft landing,' but it is still too early to declare victory.
Nick Timiraos, known as the 'New Fedwire,' stated that the U.S. economy is unprecedentedly close to a soft landing, with cooling inflation and strong employment, but uncertainties remain regarding the 2% inflation target. Factors such as tariff pass-through, consumer resilience, and AI's impact on employment are becoming key variables in determining whether the 'final mile' will land smoothly. The market is watching whether Kevin Warsh, the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, will continue to consolidate these gains or pursue aggressive interest rate cuts.
Futu Morning Brief | Bridgewater significantly increased its holdings of NVIDIA and gold stocks in Q4; Seven platform companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and TikTok, were summoned for talks; Hong Kong stock market will close at noon on New Year's Eve,
Wang Yi met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio; Bessent: Inflation is expected to return to 2% by 2026, and there may be room for a 'narrowing' of tariff policies.
Preview for the week | The Spring Festival week is approaching! Key events include the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the release of the Fed meeting minutes, and the upcoming disclosure of Berkshire Hathaway's 13F filing; Hong Kong stocks will close
The Fed's meeting minutes are coming! The next ruling date for the Supreme Court on Trump's tariff case is approaching, and Berkshire's 13F disclosure will be revealed! Companies such as Walmart and Moody's are about to release their reports!
Bold prediction from Wall Street: To hedge against the labor force gap, Warsh might tolerate an inflation rate of 2.5%-3.5%!
Dhaval Joshi, an analyst at BCA Research, predicted that under the future leadership of Kevin Warsh at the Federal Reserve, the Fed might de facto tolerate an inflation rate rising to between 2.5% and 3.5% to support the U.S. economy operating at a higher level.
Institution: The tug-of-war between growth resilience and inflation persistence continues, with potential shifts in the Fed's policy space likely after May.
Guosheng Securities believes that the true inflection point for changes in the Fed's policy space is highly likely to occur after the chairmanship transition in May. If, under Warsh’s leadership post-transition, there is a marginal adjustment in the Fed's policy stance, combined with a gradual slowdown in economic momentum in the first half of the year, the room for interest rate cuts in the second half may significantly expand.
Morgan Stanley's Q4 holdings maintained a focus on core technology, with Apple topping the list and positions in index ETFs declining.
Morgan Stanley's Q4 portfolio changes reflect the characteristics of 'maintaining a focus on core technology, reducing index exposure, and enhancing active selection capabilities.'
The battle for market narratives influencing trillions in capital: on one side is 'AI disrupts everything,' and on the other is 'insufficient returns from AI.'
The market is caught in a dual narrative tug-of-war between 'AI disrupting everything' and 'insufficient AI returns': the former has triggered panic selling of perceived 'victims' such as software companies (with valuations halved), while the latter has intensified scrutiny over the return on capital expenditures. Capital is accelerating its flow into non-U.S. markets, with South Korea's KOSPI index posting its best weekly performance in five years. Non-U.S. funds have seen inflows of $89 billion, far surpassing the $16 billion for U.S. equities, reflecting investors' shift from crowded U.S. markets to Asian markets.
The US Shifts to 'Reflation': Focus on the Interconnection of Major Asset Classes Amid Global Liquidity 'Tides'
Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that as the United States shifts from 'K-shaped divergence' to 'reflation,' attention should be paid to the correlation of major asset classes under the ebb and flow of global liquidity.
U.S. Stock Market Close | Cooling Inflation Fails to Offset AI Concerns, Major Indexes Post Weekly Declines; Most Tech Stocks End Lower, NVIDIA, Apple Drop Over 2%; Gold Reclaims 5,000 Mark, Bitcoin Touches $69,000
Major U.S. stock indexes closed nearly flat on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite declining by 0.22%. Notably, the small-cap index rose by 1.2%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 index gained 1.0%, approaching its all-time high. Analysts suggest that a 'de-weighting' characteristic has emerged within the market. Amazon fell by 0.41%, marking its ninth consecutive day of declines and recording the longest losing streak since 2006.
U.S. Stock ETF Tracker | With inflation concerns temporarily easing, the 2x leveraged gold ETF rose nearly 5%, and the 2x leveraged silver ETF surged nearly 6%; betting on the R2 mid-sized electric SUV, the 2x leveraged RIVN ETF skyrocketed by 53%.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.22%, and the S&P 500 Index edging up 0.05%. Most popular technology stocks declined, with NVIDIA and Apple dropping more than 2%, while Google, Meta, and Broadcom fell over 1%.
Top 20 by Trading Volume | Strong Rebound in Cryptocurrency Concepts: Coinbase Surges 16% Post-Earnings, Strategy Up Nearly 9%; U.S. Appeals Court Dismisses Patent Litigation Against Apple and Google; Amazon Records Nine Consecutive Declines, Marking the
NVIDIA, the top traded stock on the US market by value on Friday, fell 2.21%, with a trading volume of $29.38 billion. Reports indicate that Samsung and SK Hynix are facing capacity and yield issues with HBM4, which may prompt NVIDIA to relax its requirements. Although Samsung has taken the lead in mass-producing HBM4, its 1c DRAM yield is only 60%, with a monthly production capacity of just 60,000 to 70,000 wafers. SK Hynix's initial product reliability testing may struggle to reach 11Gbps. Industry insiders expect NVIDIA to potentially procure sub-high specification products such as 10.6Gbps and ease yield requirements to stabilize the supply chain.