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JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Prm Inc Cmplx ETF (JPEQ) News
快讯 | 美国8月CPI同比增长3.4%符合市场预期 交易员上调美联储加息预期
US Aug. CPI YoY +3.4% Vs +3.4% Forecast, Prior +3.4%
Top 20 by Trading Volume | Oracle surges 8% before turning lower; Micron Technology Taiwan plans to issue employee bonuses totaling millions of TWD; Starship test flight next week may generate revenue; iPhone Duo targets Asian market, with Cook citing ins
Micron Technology, the top-traded U.S. stock by turnover on Friday, closed down 0.22% with a trading volume of $21.197 billion. On Friday, Micron Technology announced that it would award bonuses to more than 60,000 employees worldwide, marking the highest payout in its history. Employees in the Taiwan region of China will receive total compensation equivalent to 35 to 68 months of salary.
U.S. Stock Market Close | August CPI data released; major indices surge 1%, ending four-day losing streak; Dell soars 12% to record high; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rises 2%, with Marvell and Coherent up over 4%; oil prices retreat below $100
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.86% to close at 7,656.98, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.96% to 26,333.04, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.98% to 52,573.29. WTI crude oil fell 2% to $100.44 per barrel, while Brent crude retreated nearly 3% from a four-month high but remained above $104. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds outperformed short-term ones.
Following the CPI release, investment banks are scrambling to revise their forecasts: the camp expecting no rate hikes this year has capitulated, while hawks are betting on three rate increases by January next year.
TD Securities has adopted the most hawkish stance, shifting from a forecast of unchanged rates for the full year to projecting three rate hikes by January next year. JPMorgan now expects one hike each in September and December, with a pause in October. MUFG anticipates a hike in September followed by a pause, with the highest probability (60%) of another hike in December. Citi forecasts a rate hike in September followed by an extended hold, with rate cuts resuming in June next year.
Is the August CPI reading "just right"? Wall Street is heavily betting on a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, leaving Warsh unable to cry "wolf" once again.
The "New Fed Communications Channel" breaks down the CPI data: while annualized core inflation has cooled, short-term trends are resurging. Following the CPI release, at least two institutions that previously expected the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next week have revised their forecasts to anticipate a rate hike. Wall Street does not necessarily believe that U.S. inflation is spiraling out of control again, but growing consensus suggests that with disinflation stalling and oil prices rebounding, the Federal Reserve needs to implement an insurance-style policy adjustment through a rate hike. Divergence among institutions is emerging: whether September's move is merely an insurance hike or the start of a new tightening cycle, and whether there will be a hike in December, has become a new source of uncertainty.
Hassett: Trump’s $5,000 plan “can be implemented in a fiscally responsible manner”; if interest rates rise, “the President will have something to say”
Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), characterized the proposal as “serious,” stating that it “can be implemented in a fiscally responsible manner,” with offsetting measures to be negotiated with Congress. The proposal could advance through the budget reconciliation process to bypass filibusters by the minority party. Meanwhile, Hassett remarked, “I suspect that if the Federal Reserve takes significant action, the President will have something to say.”
August CPI may not have fully reflected inflationary pressures, as U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6%.
① The U.S. Department of Labor reported on September 11 that the August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding forecasts; ② A Goldman Sachs executive argued that the data underestimates inflationary pressures, as the survey period preceded the latest round of energy price hikes; ③ On the same day, the University of Michigan's September Consumer Sentiment Index was released at 47.8, significantly below expectations, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6%, hitting a new high since June.
August CPI: The Federal Reserve backed into a corner as markets begin to price in the exhaustion of negative catalysts
Source: CICC Strategy. Following the non-farm payrolls data, the August CPI also exceeded expectations. Although only the core month-on-month figure came in above forecasts (0.3% vs. expected 0.2%), core CPI is widely regarded as a key indicator. The higher-than-expected monthly gain kept the year-on-year core rate broadly flat compared to the previous month (2.45% vs. 2.48%). As for headline CPI, its rise was fully anticipated and aligned with market expectations, requiring little further comment. This data is largely consistent with our earlier forecasts.
With core CPI exceeding expectations and the Federal Reserve poised for its first rate hike in three years—pending only official announcement—why did U.S. stocks rise instead of fall?
The August CPI data in the United States has further intensified the already tense atmosphere surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting. However, the market reaction is noteworthy: while U.S. Treasury yields rose, U.S. equity index futures did not decline as intuition might suggest. For the market, this news appears to be more of a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event.
US Market Outlook | August CPI in line with market expectations; Houthi rebels announce military operations against Saudi Arabia; SpaceX secures multi-billion-dollar computing power contract; Tesla China launches new all-wheel-drive high-performance Model
In pre-market trading on Thursday, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose across the board. As of press time, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.56%, Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.69%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.56%.
Express News | Yemen's Houthi armed forces announced large-scale, high-quality military operations against Saudi Arabia.
The bond market sell-off storm persists! Could a 5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury trigger a 10% correction in U.S. equities?
The latest Markets Pulse survey indicates that intensifying bond sell-offs are pushing U.S. Treasury yields to levels that could inflict significant damage on equity markets.
Top U.S. Stock Performers This Week | Roivant Sciences surged more than 17% this week as Phase II data for mosliciguat, developed by its subsidiary, met endpoints in treating PH-ILD; Cloudflare rose nearly 12%, indirectly benefiting as an edge computing p
This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by a cumulative 2.53% to close at 52,064.1 points; over the same period, the S&P 500 Index declined by 1.64% to 7,591.7 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 1.6% to 26,081.72 points.
Trump’s Poll Numbers Slide, Bond Market Spirals—Is Warsh’s Path to Independence Opening Up?
Analysis suggests that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, coupled with mounting pressure on Trump’s poll numbers, has unexpectedly expanded the independent policy space for Federal Reserve Chair Walsh. Powell’s retention on the Board provides political cover, while rising yields also help suppress inflation. Leveraging his strong ties with Treasury Secretary Bessent and shifts in the external environment, Walsh is demonstrating strategic resolve and maneuvering room that exceed expectations.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? The U.S. August CPI data will be released at 20:30 tonight, marking a pivotal moment for the markets.
① At 20:30 Beijing Time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the August CPI data, which will be the final "inflation puzzle piece" available to the Federal Reserve before its interest rate decision next week. ② As widely discussed by market participants recently, this week's inflation report is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's actions at next week's monetary policy meeting.
China Merchants Macro | With the September FOMC meeting approaching, will TACO arrive?
Core View: Market consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September currently hinges on the U.S. CPI data for August, scheduled for release on September 11. However, the threshold for a September rate hike does not depend solely on the limited information available in September itself. The decision to initiate the first rate hike may involve higher-dimensional considerations, including the midterm elections, changes to inflation metrics, and the Fed’s reaction function. An interesting phenomenon observed at the end of July during the FOMC meeting was Trump’s TACO one week prior to the session; it is plausible that the diminishing impact of oil prices on inflation served as one rationale for the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. With escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, if Trump again employs TACO tactics in the coming week to suppress oil prices, compounded by constraints from the midterm elections, the Federal Reserve may
New Bond King Gundlach Warns: Long-End Yields Will Surge if the Fed Holds Steady
Gundlach argues that U.S. inflation is far from subsiding, with the CPI trajectory bearing a "striking resemblance" to the Great Inflation of the 1970s, suggesting that true inflation could be as high as 7%. Of particular concern is the severe divergence in credit markets, where spreads on AI-related corporate bonds have widened dramatically due to an "avalanche" of supply. Meanwhile, facing a Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P at 42 times and a 38% weighting for technology stocks, Gundlach bluntly states that the U.S. equity market is in an "extremely dangerous" state.
U.S. Treasury yields approach the 5% "psychological barrier"! The global bond market sell-off intensifies as financial markets await tonight's 8:30 PM CPI "final verdict"
A global bond sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes toward the critical 5% level.
U.S. Treasury yields at 5%, oil prices at $120, VIX index at 25? The market’s nightmare scenario is becoming a reality.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surged past 4.8%, steadily approaching the critical 5% threshold. Once it stabilizes above this level, it will formally break out of its multi-year trading range, leaving little resistance overhead. Surging oil prices and broad-based increases in agricultural commodities continue to fuel inflation expectations, while the VIX has spiked abruptly, prompting institutions to rush for tail-risk hedges. Although the AI narrative supports the resilience of tech stocks, the 35% short interest accumulated in the Nasdaq could trigger a short squeeze at any moment.
UBS Group CEO warns against market complacency: Geopolitical and inflationary risks are compounding, suggesting interest rates may remain "higher for longer."
UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti has warned that complacency is spreading across global financial markets while risks accumulate beneath the surface. Amid a triple threat of geopolitical conflicts, supply chain pressures, and persistent inflation, the European Central Bank may lead the rate-hiking cycle, with the Federal Reserve following suit, potentially making high interest rates the "new normal." Wealthy investors have quietly shifted toward diversified allocations but have not exited U.S. dollar-denominated assets.