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The size of U.S. long-term Treasury bond repurchases may reach up to $6 billion, falling short of market expectations.
The U.S. Treasury has tripled the cap on its long-term bond buyback program to $6 billion, marking the latest effort by Treasury Secretary Bessent to curb rising long-term borrowing costs. However, the market reaction proved counterproductive, indicating that investors had anticipated a larger-scale operation.
Is the gold bull market set to make a comeback? Goldman Sachs discusses "entry timing": $4,000 before the Fed's September meeting!
① Anthony Kim, Global Head of Metals Trading at Goldman Sachs, stated that gold's underperformance since February represents merely a pause rather than the end of the bull market, with prices expected to reach new highs in the medium term; ② Goldman Sachs projects gold prices will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with $4,000 serving as key support, and recommends establishing long positions near this level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting.
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates next week? Two major inflation reports released over the next two days will set the tone.
① The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 15–16, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding the central bank's actions. ② Over the next two days, two critical inflation data releases will set the tone for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next week. ③ The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should provide clearer insights into whether U.S. inflation is reaccelerating or moderating.
UBS Group states that "gold prices have fully priced in the Federal Reserve": a slight decline if rates are hiked in September, but a sharp rise if they are held steady.
UBS Group's latest report reveals that the pricing logic for gold is quietly shifting. In the face of non-farm payroll data far exceeding expectations, the decline in gold prices remained limited—this does not indicate a failure of interest rate logic, but rather that the market has completed its repricing of expectations. More importantly, if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, the upside potential for gold prices will far exceed the potential downside in a rate-hike scenario. With central banks continuing to increase their holdings and capital flowing steadily into Chinese ETFs, the strategic value of gold is being repriced.
How Did Bessent’s Market Rescue ‘Trump Card’ Turn Into a ‘Bad Hand’ That Spooked Investors?
① U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had pledged to take decisive action to curb U.S. Treasury yields, but his measures have thus far proven insufficient; ② On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would purchase up to $6 billion in long-term Treasury securities in the following day’s repurchase operations. This figure disappointed many investors who had anticipated a larger scale of intervention, while also pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs.
Gold Edges up as Market Digests Weaker Dollar, Higher U.S. Yields