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Express News | The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether NVIDIA’s $20 billion licensing deal with AI chip startup Groq was deliberately structured to evade antitrust scrutiny. (Bloomberg)
The Great AI Bottleneck Debate: Peak Constraints in 2027 vs. Massive Capacity Release and Pricing Collapse in 2028
Analyst Ben Bajarin believes that demand for AI computing power will continue to grow, with 2027 marking the industry's most severe supply constraint "bottleneck," while supply and demand will remain in a slightly tight balance in 2028. Jay Goldberg, meanwhile, warns of the iron law of historical cycles, suggesting that massive capacity expansions by companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor could lead to a collapse in pricing power and a mean reversion in gross margins. Both analysts agree that the era of "blind buying" leading to immediate surges in the AI supply chain has ended; investors must now carefully select core assets with resilient pricing power across economic cycles.
HSBC: Remains bullish on AI trades; “monetization validation” becomes key for next phase
HSBC Global Research remains bullish on global artificial intelligence (AI) thematic trades, but warns that their performance in the next phase hinges on a key piece of evidence: whether AI monetization at the corporate level can keep pace with the massive capital expenditures of hyperscale cloud providers.
Morgan Stanley Explains the True Significance of GPT-6 Astra: Shifting the “AI Narrative” from “Demand Debates” Back to “Physical Bottlenecks”
Morgan Stanley believes that the release of GPT-6 Astra will shift the focus of the AI narrative from “whether demand is excessive” to “whether physical supply can keep pace.” The leap in capabilities brought by Astra will trigger more AI revenue scenarios. However, shortages of ABF substrates, manufacturing bottlenecks for HBM4E, and a 38-gigawatt power gap are the hard constraints truly limiting the realization of AI dividends. The firm recommends the following priority order: AI computing power as the top priority, followed by networking; selective allocation for memory; and analog chips as an early-cycle hedge.
"The Big Short" investor Burry: Liquidates NVIDIA and Palantir put options expiring in December 2026, scaling back short positions
Gelonghui, September 10 | The Michael Burry Stock Tracker account on social platform X posted that Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for the film "The Big Short," has adjusted his options portfolio: he has liquidated his NVIDIA and Palantir put options expiring in December 2026, while retaining put options with longer maturities. The post stated that Burry has completely sold out of his NVIDIA and Palantir put options expiring in December 2026, but remains committed to his long-term bearish stance, maintaining positions expiring in 2027.
BofA: NVIDIA and Broadcom hold the widest positions; Micron and AMD see significant additions from actively managed funds
Bank of America stated that among active fund managers in the United States, NVIDIA and Broadcom hold the most "broad" positioning base in the semiconductor sector, while the allocation ratios for Micron Technology and AMD have also risen significantly.